Interview guides · Ekimetrics

Ekimetrics Data Scientist Interview Questions & Guide 2026

Diagnose a metric move for Ekimetrics data scientist prep: split by segment, rule out a logging change, separate mix shift from behaviour.

The 60-second brief

As a Data Scientist at Ekimetrics, you sit at the intersection of advanced statistical modeling and high-stakes business strategy. You are not just building models; you are delivering actionable insights through Marketing Mix Modelling (MMM) and advanced analytics to solve complex problems for global clients. Your work directly influences how major brands allocate their marketing budgets, optimize their media spend, and measure the true incremental impact of their advertising efforts.

Coding rounds for this role are usually data-manipulation shaped rather than data-structure shaped: group-bys, joins, time windows, ranking within a partition. Confirm the format before spending a week on graph traversal.

Focus areas

Size an experiment before anyone launches it
Turn a vague request into a measurable question
Decompose a metric move by segment and mix

Overview

The role is highly consultative and requires a blend of rigorous technical expertise and commercial acumen. You will be responsible for translating ambiguous business challenges into structured data problems, navigating messy real-world datasets, and communicating findings to stakeholders who may not have a technical background. It is a fast-paced environment where you are expected to own your projects from initial hypothesis generation to final delivery, ensuring that every insight you provide drives tangible bottom-line growth for the client.

Where to focus your preparation

Treat the sections below as preparation areas and confirm the format with your recruiter.

Preparation focus

No round sequence has been reported for this company, so work the categories below and confirm the format with your recruiter.

What to demonstrate

Breadth across SQL, experimentation and product reasoning
Ability to state assumptions before choosing a method

How to prepare

Drill the practice exercises below and time yourself
Prepare three quantified stories about decisions you drove

Where candidates lose points

Reading a pooled rate that moved because the mix moved, not because any behaviour changed

A pooled conversion rate is a weighted average, and a shift in the weights can move it in the opposite direction to every one of its parts. A paid campaign that brings low-converting traffic drops overall signup conversion even if desktop, mobile web and app conversion each rose that week, which is Simpson's paradox and it is the single most common cause of an inexplicable dashboard move. The discipline is to decompose before explaining: recompute the rate holding last period's segment weights fixed, and compare that counterfactual to the actual, so the mix effect and the rate effect are separated numerically rather than argued about. Segment on the dimensions that actually reweight, which in this domain are almost always device_type, referrer_channel, country and new versus returning.

Counting on an identity key that changes underneath the metric

visitor_id is per browser and per device, and it resets on cookie clearance, private browsing and platform privacy changes, so the distinct-visitor count drifts upward for reasons unrelated to reach. Any rate with visitors in the denominator therefore decays over time even when behaviour is constant, and any rate with visitors in the numerator inflates. The stitching at signup makes it worse in both directions: a user who signed up on mobile and returns on desktop is two visitors and one user, while a shared device is one visitor and several users. Decide which key each metric is counted on, write it into the definition, and when comparing a period before and after a platform privacy change, expect a level shift in every visitor-keyed metric and do not attribute it to the product.

Naming a model class before naming the deployment constraints

Set out the latency budget, the label delay, the retraining cadence, the interpretability requirement and the number of labelled examples, then pick the model that fits them. A boosted-tree answer to a problem where each decision must be explained to the affected user is a well-executed answer to the wrong question.

Sizing estimates built on unnamed, unrevisable assumptions

Write each assumption as a named number you can change, then show the arithmetic so the interviewer can challenge one input instead of the whole answer. Finish by saying which assumption the result is most sensitive to, which matters more than the point estimate.

Questions & practice

Explain the difference between correlation and causation in the context of marketing effectiveness.

Medium · statistics and probability

Approach

Sanity-check the answer against a simple bound or a simulated case.
Translate the result into the decision it informs, in one plain sentence.
Say what the estimate is of, and over what population it generalises.

Follow-up

What sample size would you need to detect an effect half this size?
Which assumption here is most likely to be violated in practice?

How do you handle missing or noisy data when building a regression model?

Medium · machine learning and modelling

Approach

Say how the offline result would be validated online before it is trusted.
Set a baseline first, so any model has something honest to beat.
Check what information would not exist at prediction time, and exclude it.

Follow-up

Where could label leakage enter this setup?
What would you monitor after launch to know the model is still valid?

Implement seven-day activation from its written definition

Medium · metric definition · cohorts · pandas · joins

Implement the seven-day activation rate. Inputs: dim_user with user_id, account_created_at_utc and is_internal; fct_event with user_id, occurred_at_utc and is_core_action. A user activates when core-action events carrying a non-NULL user_id fall on at least two distinct UTC dates inside [account_created_at_utc, account_created_at_utc + 7 days). The denominator is every non-internal user whose account_created_at_utc lands in the cohort week, including users with no events at all. Return one row per cohort week with numerator, denominator and rate, publishing only weeks whose last signup is at least eight days old.

Approach

Build the denominator first, from dim_user alone, filtered on is_internal = False. Deriving it from the join is the standard way to lose every user who never fired an event, which is exactly the population the metric is about.
Join events to users on user_id with a left join from the user side, then apply the window as a half-open interval: occurred_at >= created AND occurred_at < created + 7 days. The right bound is exclusive, so an event at exactly created + 7 days does not count.
Count distinct UTC dates per user, not distinct events. Floor occurred_at_utc to date before the nunique, and do it in UTC rather than local time so the threshold does not move with the user's country.
Apply the >= 2 threshold, aggregate to cohort week, and compute the rate by re-summing numerator and denominator per week rather than averaging any per-user or per-day rate. Fix the week anchor explicitly: cohort_week is the Monday of the signup week in UTC, which is what Postgres DATE_TRUNC('week') returns and what any SQL version of this metric will produce. In pandas, subtract dt.weekday days from the floored timestamp. If you reach for periods instead, the anchor that matches is to_period('W') (equivalently 'W-SUN'), whose weeks end Sunday and therefore start Monday; to_period('W-MON') labels weeks that end on Monday, so it runs Tuesday through Monday and its start_time is a Tuesday. Mixing the two shifts every cohort label by one day and silently moves Mondays into the previous week.
Suppress immature weeks: drop any cohort week whose maximum account_created_at_utc is within 8 days of the data cut, and return them as absent rather than as a partial number.

Worked solution (30 min)

users = dim_user[~dim_user.is_internal].copy(); created = users['account_created_at_utc']; users['cohort_week'] = created.dt.floor('D') - pd.to_timedelta(created.dt.weekday, unit='D'), which is the Monday-start week. The period spelling that agrees with it is created.dt.to_period('W').dt.start_time; 'W-MON' does not agree and is off by a day.
ev = events[events.is_core_action & events.user_id.notna()]; merge onto users on user_id with how='inner' for the numerator side only.
Filter to the half-open window, add ev_date = occurred_at_utc.dt.date, group by user_id and count distinct dates, keep users with >= 2.
numer = users.merge(activated_user_ids, how='left', indicator=True) then group by cohort_week and sum the indicator; denom = users.groupby('cohort_week').size().
rate = numer / denom; drop weeks where users.groupby('cohort_week')['account_created_at_utc'].max() > data_max - 8 days.

Expected result: One row per mature cohort week with numerator, denominator and rate, where denominator equals the count of non-internal signups in that week regardless of activity, numerator is less than or equal to denominator, and the most recent 1 to 2 weeks are absent rather than reported low.

Verify it yourself

For a synthetic user with two core actions 90 minutes apart on the same UTC date, activation is False.
For a synthetic user with one core action on day 0 and one at exactly created + 7 days, activation is False; move the second to created + 6 days 23 hours and it becomes True.
Pin the week anchor with two users created at Sunday 23:59 UTC and the following Monday 00:01 UTC: they must land in different cohort weeks, and the Sunday user's cohort_week must be the Monday six days before them. to_period('W-MON') puts both in one period, which is the off-by-one this check exists to catch.
The denominator summed across all published weeks equals the count of non-internal users created in that date range.
Re-summing numerator and denominator to a monthly figure gives a different answer from averaging the weekly rates; the re-summed one is the metric.

Follow-up

The threshold is 2 distinct days. What changes in the reported history if someone moves it to 3, and how would you publish that change?
Invited seats and SSO-provisioned users have no pre-signup session. Should they be in this denominator at all, and what does including them do to the rate for sales-assisted accounts?
How would you produce the same metric at account grain, and which of the two would you put on the dashboard?

Pair flow starts to completions within a thirty-minute bound

Medium · event-streams · conditional-aggregation · flow-funnel

fct_event holds event_id, flow_id, flow_instance_id, event_name, occurred_at_utc, surface, app_version. Using only rows where event_name is 'flow_started', 'flow_completed' or 'error_shown', compute the daily core-flow completion rate by surface and app_version. Numerator: distinct flow_instance_id whose flow_completed occurs within 30 minutes of its flow_started with no error_shown for the same instance in between. Denominator: distinct flow_instance_id with a flow_started that day. Report rows with a NULL flow_instance_id as a separate coverage count, not inside either side.

Approach

Collapse the stream to one row per flow_instance_id using conditional aggregation: MIN(occurred_at_utc) FILTER (WHERE event_name = 'flow_started') AS started, MIN(...) FILTER (WHERE event_name = 'flow_completed') AS completed, MIN(...) FILTER (WHERE event_name = 'error_shown') AS first_error. This makes the 'first' semantics explicit and avoids a self-join entirely.
Apply the predicates on that single row: completed IS NOT NULL AND completed <= started + interval '30 minutes' AND (first_error IS NULL OR first_error > completed). Note the last clause encodes 'in between' literally, so an error surfaced after a successful completion does not disqualify the attempt.
Bucket by started::date, surface and app_version. Splitting by app_version is not decoration: a completion-rate regression is nearly always confined to one client build, and a pooled daily rate hides it behind the installed base.
Count NULL flow_instance_id rows as a separate coverage figure. They cannot be attributed to an attempt at all, so they belong in neither numerator nor denominator, and their share tells you how much of the rate is unmeasurable.
For any roll-up to week or to all surfaces, re-sum the numerator and denominator rather than averaging the daily rates.

Follow-up

occurred_at_utc is client-supplied. What do you do with an instance whose completion timestamp precedes its start?
flow_instance_id is missing on 4 percent of starts for one app_version. What can and cannot you conclude about that build?
An instance starts at 23:55 and completes at 00:04. Which day owns it, and what does the alternative do to the daily series?

Attribute account MRR to first-touch channel without seat fan-out

Medium · fan-out · joins · revenue · attribution

dim_user holds user_id, account_id, first_touch_channel, account_created_at_utc. dim_account holds account_id, lifecycle_status. fct_subscription_period holds account_id, period_start_utc, period_end_utc, period_status, mrr_cents_constant_fx. For a given as-of date, report active MRR by the first-touch channel of the account's earliest-created user. An account has many users and many periods. The channel totals must sum exactly to total active MRR on that date, and accounts whose label is NULL must appear as their own bucket.

Approach

Reduce the label side to one row per account before any join: ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY account_id ORDER BY account_created_at_utc, user_id) = 1 over dim_user, carrying first_touch_channel. Joining dim_user to the period table directly repeats each revenue row once per seat.
Reduce the money side to one row per account too: the period where period_start_utc <= :as_of AND period_end_utc > :as_of AND period_status IN ('active','past_due'). If more than one row survives that filter the account holds overlapping subscriptions, which must be deduped or deliberately summed, and either way the choice is stated rather than left to the join.
Join the two one-row-per-account CTEs and SUM(mrr_cents_constant_fx). Use the constant-FX column, since the same query run in two quarters otherwise reports currency moves as channel performance.
Bucket NULL first_touch_channel as 'unattributed' with COALESCE instead of letting it drop. Roughly the share of users with no observed touch is not small, and dropping it understates the total and inflates every named channel's share.
Reconcile: the SUM over the joined result must equal the SUM over the period CTE alone. That single equality check catches fan-out immediately, which is why it is worth writing before presenting the number.

Worked solution (30 min)

Compute total active MRR on the as-of date from the period table alone and write the number down as the target.
Build the label CTE and assert COUNT(*) = COUNT(DISTINCT account_id).
Build the as-of period CTE and assert the same, investigating any account with more than one surviving row.
Join, COALESCE the channel, aggregate, and compare the total to the target.
Deliberately run the naive dim_user join and record the inflation factor, which is the MRR-weighted mean seat count.

Expected result: One row per first_touch_channel plus an 'unattributed' bucket, whose MRR values sum exactly to the independently computed total active MRR for the as-of date.

Verify it yourself

Channel total equals the standalone total from the period CTE, to the cent.
Both CTEs satisfy COUNT(*) = COUNT(DISTINCT account_id).
The unattributed bucket is present and non-zero rather than silently absent.
The naive join version produces a strictly larger total, and you can state the ratio.

Follow-up

Which user should own the account's label: earliest created, the 'owner' role, or the one who converted? What does each choice systematically favour?
What does this table entitle you to say about the value of a channel, and what does it not?
Some accounts have a parent_account_id. How does rolling those up change both the numerator and the channel mix?

What are the most common experimentation pitfalls you have encountered in previous projects?

Medium · a/b testing and experimentation

Approach

Name the randomisation unit first; it decides the variance and what the test can detect.
Say whether units interfere with each other, and switch design if they do.
State the primary metric and the minimum effect worth shipping, then size the test.

Follow-up

What would you conclude if the result is positive but the test is underpowered?
How would you handle interference between treated and control units?

Choose one success number for a homepage redesign

Easy · conversion · guardrails · mix effects

A homepage redesign is ready to test. Marketing wants visit-to-signup conversion as the single success metric: distinct fct_session.visitor_id with a 'signup_completed' event in fct_event, over distinct visitor_id with a session started in the window where is_bot_flagged = FALSE and consent_state <> 'denied'. Sessions carry referrer_channel and device_type. Argue for or against that metric, name what you would decide on instead, and give the one guardrail you would refuse to ship without. Deliverable: the metric, the guardrail, and the failure mode in writing.

Approach

List everything that moves this rate without the page changing: referrer_channel mix, device_type mix, cookie lifetime and bot-rule changes, then pre-register the segments you will decompose on so the decomposition is not chosen after seeing the result.
Argue that signup is an intermediate outcome the homepage can inflate by over-promising, and propose activated signups per 1,000 eligible visitors — the same numerator further restricted to users clearing the seven-day activation bar — as the number the decision actually rests on.
Explain the consent exclusion rather than copying it: a 'denied' session can never be joined forward to a user, so leaving it in the denominator puts visitors there who have no path into the numerator and depresses the level permanently.
Separate what the metric can and cannot be used for: inside a randomised comparison over one window it is fine, but as a trend line across a platform privacy change it will step down because visitor_id resets more often, with no behaviour change behind it.
State the trade you would accept in advance: a smaller conversion gain with flat activation beats a larger conversion gain with activation down, and write the threshold before the readout.

Worked solution (15 min)

Restate the proposed metric and list every input that can move it with the page unchanged.
Compute the mix-held-fixed counterfactual: reweight this period's per-segment rates by last period's segment volumes, and report the difference against the pooled rate as the mix effect.
Define the decision metric: activated signups per 1,000 eligible visitors, with the seven-day activation predicate spelled out.
Write the guardrail and the explicit trade-off sentence you would put in the ship decision.
Record the denominator exclusions with the reason for each, not just the predicate.

Expected result: Conversion kept as a diagnostic, activated signups per 1,000 visitors named as the decision metric, a specified mix decomposition, and one guardrail carrying a written trade-off.

Verify it yourself

Weekly rates rolled up by re-summing numerator and denominator differ from the average of the weekly rates whenever weekly traffic is uneven. If the two agree, a rate-of-rates has been computed somewhere.
Per-segment numerators must sum to the pooled numerator. If they do not, a visitor is appearing in two segments and the segmentation is not a partition.
Activation can only be read eight days after the last signup in the window, so the earliest honest decision date is eight days after the test stops.

Follow-up

The redesign wins overall but the entire gain sits in paid social. What do you do, and what would change your mind?
How do you roll four weekly conversion rates up to a month, and why does the obvious way give a different answer?
Where does holding the segment mix fixed stop working as a correction?

Decide whether a one-day core-action drop is real

Easy · seasonality · day-of-week · late-arriving-data

A daily dashboard counts distinct fct_event.user_id with is_core_action = TRUE, filtered on occurred_at_utc, and is read at 09:00 UTC. This morning it shows yesterday down 22% against the day before. fct_event is partitioned on received_at_utc. You have fct_event, fct_session and dim_user with thirteen months of history. Deliver a one-paragraph verdict, escalate or do not escalate, with the evidence that settles it, before anyone proposes a product hypothesis.

Approach

Identify which two weekdays the comparison actually spans, then pull the same weekday-pair transition for the last 52 weeks and place the observed 22% inside that distribution. A day-over-day comparison in a product with a weekday pattern is a comparison of two different populations, so the reference class is the same transition historically, not the prior day.
Measure partition completeness rather than assuming it. For each of the last 30 days compute the share of that day's occurred_at_utc rows that had landed by 09:00 UTC the following morning, split by surface; mobile clients buffer events offline, so the freshest partition is systematically short and the shortfall is not uniform across surfaces.
Recompute the same series keyed on received_at_utc. If the drop survives on both keys it is not a lateness artefact; if it exists only on occurred_at_utc it is the partition filling in.
Check the two exclusion flags before segmenting anything: a change in is_bot_flagged coverage or a batch of is_internal accounts entering or leaving moves a distinct-user count with no user behaviour behind it.
Only if the movement survives all of the above, begin the segment decomposition. Say explicitly in the verdict which of these four checks the movement passed, so the next reader does not repeat them.

Follow-up

What publication lag would you set for this dashboard, and how would you derive the number rather than pick it?
If you switch the metric to received_at_utc, what does that break for anyone comparing to historical figures?
How would you detect the same problem automatically, so a human does not have to notice it each morning?

Suggested practice checklist

For a candidate whose interviews will centre on A/B testing, metric movement and causal claims. Design comes before arithmetic, arithmetic before analysis, and the week ends by rehearsing the readout rather than the derivation.

Day 1 — Design one test end to end on paper

Take a single feature change and write the full design: randomization unit, the exact point of exposure, the primary metric with its grain, guardrails, allocation, planned duration, and the decision rule committed before any data exists.
Write why the randomization unit must sit at or above the level where treatment can spill over, and give one case where user-level randomization is still contaminated (shared accounts or devices, or two participants in the same marketplace).
State in advance what you will do if the primary metric is flat while a secondary metric is significant.

Deliverable: A one-page test design with a decision rule written before launch.

Day 2 — Power arithmetic until it is automatic

Compute required sample size per arm for a binary metric with the normal approximation, n is approximately 2 times (z for alpha/2 plus z for power) squared times p(1 minus p) divided by delta squared, for baselines of 2, 10 and 40 percent at a 5 percent relative lift, and note that for a fixed relative lift the requirement falls as the baseline rises because delta grows proportionally with p.
Redo the calculation for a continuous metric using variance in place of p(1 minus p), and show why a heavy-tailed quantity such as revenue per user needs either far more traffic or a capped version with a stated cap.
Convert one of the results into weeks given a weekly eligible traffic figure, then list the two honest ways to shorten it (accept a larger detectable effect, or reduce variance) and write why quietly lowering the power target is a decision to miss more real wins, not a speedup.

Deliverable: A small script or sheet that maps baseline, minimum detectable effect, alpha and power to sample size and weeks, cross-checked against a published calculator.

Day 3 — Variance and the unit-of-analysis problem

Take a ratio metric whose denominator is not the randomization unit (clicks per session, randomized by user) and compute the standard error twice, once naively at session level and once by the delta method or a user-level bootstrap, then record how much the naive version understates it.
Implement CUPED on simulated data: choose a pre-period covariate X measured before assignment, estimate theta as Cov(Y, X) divided by Var(X), and analyse Y minus theta times (X minus its mean) in place of Y. Confirm the variance of the adjusted outcome equals the raw variance multiplied by one minus the squared correlation between Y and X, so a correlation of 0.45 removes about 20 percent of the variance and not 80.
Now run that simulation a few hundred times and confirm the adjusted effect estimate is unbiased for the same effect rather than numerically identical to the raw one. Within any single run the two differ, sometimes by a large fraction of the true effect, because the two arms' pre-period covariate means never coincide exactly in a finite sample; they agree in expectation, which is the property that matters and the one to state out loud.

Deliverable: A notebook showing the adjusted estimator with a measurably smaller variance than the raw one, plus a repeated-simulation table showing the two estimators agreeing on average while differing run by run.

Day 4 — Validity threats you can actually test for

Run a sample ratio mismatch check as a chi-square goodness-of-fit test against the intended allocation, and write the three causes you would chase first (assignment logged before exposure, an arm-specific redirect or load failure, bot filtering applied asymmetrically).
Simulate peeking: generate A/A data, test daily at alpha 0.05 across 14 looks, record the inflated false positive rate, then apply an alpha-spending boundary or commit to a fixed horizon and confirm the rate returns to nominal.
Write how you would separate a novelty effect from a durable lift using the treatment effect plotted against days since first exposure, and what shape would change your recommendation.

Deliverable: One table showing the peeking false positive rate before and after correction, plus a written SRM triage list.

Day 5 — When randomization is not available

Write the identifying assumption for difference-in-differences (parallel trends in the absence of treatment), then plot pre-period trends for two candidate control groups and justify rejecting one of them.
Design a switchback test for a change where user-level randomization would leak across participants, choosing a time-block length against the carryover you expect and saying how you would detect carryover in the data.
List what an interrupted time series or a synthetic control buys you and the one thing neither can rule out: an unobserved shock that coincides with the launch.

Deliverable: A one-page memo recommending a single quasi-experimental design and naming its weakest assumption explicitly.

Day 6 — The readout query

Write the assignment-to-exposure join that returns exactly one row per unit per experiment, and handle units appearing in both arms by excluding and counting them rather than silently keeping one.
Compute the per-arm metric, its variance and the relative lift with a confidence interval in SQL, then reproduce the identical numbers in a notebook as a cross-check.
Add a segment breakdown and write the sentence that keeps it from being p-hacking: segments declared in advance, everything else reported as exploratory and corrected for multiplicity.

Deliverable: A single query that outputs the full readout table, matched to a notebook recomputation.

Day 7 — Present it to someone who will not read the appendix

Give a 10-minute readout of a real or simulated experiment in the order decision, number, uncertainty, caveat.
Have your listener ask "can we ship it" in the case where the primary is flat and a guardrail moved, and answer with a recommendation rather than a request for more data.
Rewrite your opening line so the recommendation lands before any methodology.

Deliverable: A one-page readout whose first line is the recommendation.

Explaining a method to someone who will not follow the maths

Half of this section is about translation. Be ready to describe how you explained a result to someone who did not want the method, only the implication, and what you did when the simplified version started being repeated in a way that overstated it. Correcting your own simplification is a strong beat.

Walk me through a time you identified a metric drop; how did you isolate the root cause?

Medium · behavioural and stakeholder questions

Approach

State the situation in two sentences and spend the rest on your reasoning.
Close with what you would do differently, concretely.
Name the disagreement or constraint, and how you resolved it with evidence.

Follow-up

What did you decide not to do, and why?
How did you know the outcome was caused by your change?

How would you explain the concept of statistical significance to a non-technical stakeholder?

Medium · behavioural and stakeholder questions

Approach

Quantify the outcome, including what you would not claim credit for.
Pick a story where you drove the decision, not one where you observed it.
State the situation in two sentences and spend the rest on your reasoning.

Follow-up

What would you do differently if you ran that project again?
What did you decide not to do, and why?

Disagree with a product manager's roadmap claim using data

Medium · causal inference · selection bias · stakeholder

A product manager proposes building a feature on the argument that accounts connecting an integration in week one retain three times better at week four. The figure is correctly computed from dim_user and fct_event, and it has already been shown to leadership. You have one scheduled 1:1 before the roadmap locks. Deliver the specific analysis you would run to test whether the relationship is causal, the result that would change your own mind, and how you open the conversation so that the PM is not put in the position of defending the number in public.

Approach

Recognise what is being probed: whether you can separate a number being right from an inference being wrong, and do it without costing the PM face. The generic answer recites that correlation is not causation; the strong one names the specific confound and proposes the cheapest design that could distinguish the explanations.
State the alternative concretely. Accounts that connect an integration in week one are accounts that already have a workflow and a technical owner, so week-one intent plausibly drives both the connection and week-four retention. The selection is on intent, which no amount of post-hoc adjustment observes.
Order the discriminating analyses by cost. First, condition on pre-connection activity by comparing retention within strata of week-one core-action count, which removes the crude version of the confound but not unobserved intent. Second, look for variation in integration availability that was unrelated to intent, such as a staggered release or an outage window. Third, an encouragement design that randomises a prompt to connect and reads the intent-to-treat effect on week-four retention, which is the only version that identifies an effect.
Run the timing check, because it is nearly free and it is the most persuasive single piece of evidence. If the retention advantage among connectors is already visible before any of them connected, the causal story is largely finished.
Pre-commit to what would change your mind and say it before you show anything: if the gap survives stratification and the encouragement arm moves week-four retention at all, the feature has a case and you will say so.
Open the 1:1 by agreeing with the true part, that the correlation is real and worth chasing, then ask what effect size the roadmap plan assumes. That makes the size of the claim the topic instead of its authorship.

Follow-up

The encouragement test needs six weeks and the roadmap locks in two. What do you recommend in the interim?
Stratifying on week-one activity closes half the gap. What do you conclude, and what do you still not know?
How would you word this in the roadmap document so the PM's original number is reframed rather than deleted?