Interview guides · Domo
Domo Data Scientist Interview Questions & Guide 2026
Data scientist prep for Domo candidates: drill A/B design, power and minimum detectable effect on original exercises.
The 60-second brief
As a Data Scientist at Domo, you are at the intersection of massive-scale data integration and actionable business intelligence. Domo is defined by its ability to connect all data, systems, and people in one place, and your role is to derive the intelligence that makes that data meaningful for our customers. You will work on complex analytical problems that directly influence how organizations visualize their operations and predict future outcomes.
Product-sense cases reward reasoning from a mechanism to a testable prediction. Reciting every metric you can name reads as pattern matching; naming the single quantity that would move if your explanation were true reads as thinking.
Focus areas
- Define numerator, denominator and window precisely
- Size an experiment before anyone launches it
- Pick a randomisation unit that respects interference
Overview
This position is critical because you act as the bridge between raw data streams and executive-level decision-making. Whether you are building predictive models, optimizing data pipelines, or uncovering patterns within large, unstructured datasets, your work directly impacts the efficacy of the Domo platform. You will operate in a fast-paced, high-visibility environment, collaborating with product and engineering teams to ensure that our analytical capabilities remain market-leading.
Where to focus your preparation
Treat the sections below as preparation areas and confirm the format with your recruiter.
Preparation focus
No round sequence has been reported for this company, so work the categories below and confirm the format with your recruiter.
What to demonstrate
- Breadth across SQL, experimentation and product reasoning
- Ability to state assumptions before choosing a method
How to prepare
- Drill the practice exercises below and time yourself
- Prepare three quantified stories about decisions you drove
Where candidates lose points
Comparing cohort retention curves of different maturities, or building the curve from users who are still present
A cohort four weeks old has no week-8 value, so an average taken across cohorts silently drops young cohorts from the later columns and keeps them in the earlier ones. The curve then bends upward at the tail, and the reading that 'retention is improving over time' is an artefact of which cohorts survived to be measured. The same error appears in the denominator when retention is computed over users active in the current period rather than over the full original cohort, which conditions on survival and guarantees a flattering number. The fix is a triangle: fix the cohort at signup, bound every window on both sides, and only compare cells where every cohort has had the full elapsed time, publishing the rest as blank rather than as a partial average.
Counting on an identity key that changes underneath the metric
visitor_id is per browser and per device, and it resets on cookie clearance, private browsing and platform privacy changes, so the distinct-visitor count drifts upward for reasons unrelated to reach. Any rate with visitors in the denominator therefore decays over time even when behaviour is constant, and any rate with visitors in the numerator inflates. The stitching at signup makes it worse in both directions: a user who signed up on mobile and returns on desktop is two visitors and one user, while a shared device is one visitor and several users. Decide which key each metric is counted on, write it into the definition, and when comparing a period before and after a platform privacy change, expect a level shift in every visitor-keyed metric and do not attribute it to the product.
Comparing periods without accounting for seasonality or day-of-week
Compare whole weeks against whole weeks and check whether the same swing appeared in prior cycles or prior years before attributing it to anything you changed. Weekday and weekend populations often differ enough that a Tuesday-to-Saturday comparison is meaningless.
Reading experiment results before checking the arm split
Compare observed arm counts against the intended allocation ratio, not an assumed even split, and set the alarm far below the conventional 0.05: at 0.05 roughly one healthy experiment in twenty trips it, which is why sample-ratio checks usually run at p < 0.001 or stricter. The test's power scales with sample size, so it misses a real diversion on a small experiment and fires on an imbalance too small to move the estimate on a very large one. A flag means go find the assignment or logging fault before reading any outcome, not report a mismatch.
Questions & practice
Explain the trade-offs between different machine learning algorithms for a classification task.
Medium · machine learning and modelling
Approach
- Check what information would not exist at prediction time, and exclude it.
- Frame the prediction: the label, the moment of prediction, and the action it triggers.
- Pick an evaluation metric that matches the cost of each error type, not a default.
Follow-up
- Where could label leakage enter this setup?
- How would you choose the decision threshold, and who owns that choice?
How do you validate the performance of a model before deploying it to production?
Medium · machine learning and modelling
Approach
- Set a baseline first, so any model has something honest to beat.
- Say how the offline result would be validated online before it is trusted.
- Check what information would not exist at prediction time, and exclude it.
Follow-up
- How would you choose the decision threshold, and who owns that choice?
- What would you monitor after launch to know the model is still valid?
Permutation test for a difference in conversion rates
Medium · permutation test · resampling · inference
Write a two-sided permutation test from scratch for a difference in conversion rates, using no scipy hypothesis function. Input: a DataFrame with unit_id, variant in {control, treatment} and converted in {0,1}, one row per randomisation unit. Compute the observed difference in proportions, then build the null distribution by reshuffling the variant labels while holding each arm's size fixed. Report the p-value as (1 + the count of permuted statistics at least as extreme in absolute value) / (B + 1) with B at least 10,000, and return the permutation distribution.
Approach
- Name the null being tested: the sharp null that each unit's outcome is the same under either label. That is what licenses permuting labels, and it is stronger than the null of equal means, which matters when someone asks whether the test is valid under unequal variances.
- Extract converted to a single numpy array of 0s and 1s and record n_treatment. Every permutation is then just a reshuffle of one array, and the treatment mean is the mean of the first n_treatment entries of the shuffled array.
- Vectorise the B permutations with rng.permuted on a tiled 2-D array, or with argsort of a (B, n) random matrix. A Python loop calling np.random.shuffle B times is correct but roughly an order of magnitude slower and often runs past the time limit.
- Use the +1 correction in both numerator and denominator. Without it a p-value of exactly 0 is reportable, which is false: the observed labelling is itself one of the permutations, so the smallest attainable p-value is 1/(B+1).
- Compare the resulting p-value against a two-proportion z-test as a sanity check. At these sample sizes they should agree closely; a large divergence means the statistic or the shuffle is wrong, not that the permutation test found something subtle.
Worked solution (25 min)
- y = df['converted'].to_numpy(); n_t = (df['variant'] == 'treatment').sum(); obs = y[treat_mask].mean() - y[~treat_mask].mean().
- Build the null: for B draws, shuffle y and take the mean of the first n_t entries minus the mean of the rest.
- p = (1 + (np.abs(null) >= abs(obs) - 1e-12).sum()) / (B + 1), with the small tolerance so exact ties count as at least as extreme.
- Return obs, p and the null array; plot or describe the null to confirm it is centred at 0.
Expected result: The observed difference, a p-value in [1/(B+1), 1], and a null distribution whose mean is approximately 0 and whose standard deviation approximately matches the analytic pooled standard error sqrt(p_pool*(1-p_pool)*(1/n1 + 1/n2)).
Verify it yourself
- The null distribution's mean is within a few Monte Carlo standard errors of 0; if it is centred on the observed difference, the code bootstrapped instead of permuted.
- The null's standard deviation agrees with the analytic pooled standard error to within a couple of percent.
- The p-value agrees with a hand-computed two-proportion z-test p-value to within about 0.01 at these sample sizes.
- Setting converted identical in both arms by construction yields a p-value near 1, and a planted large effect yields the floor of 1/(B+1).
Follow-up
- The arms are 200 and 20,000 units. Does the permutation test stay valid, and what happens to its resolution at B = 10,000?
- Give a 95 percent confidence interval for the difference. Can you get it from this permutation distribution, and if not, what would you run instead?
- The randomisation unit is user_id but the outcome is per session. What breaks, and what is the fix?
Seven-day activation rate by weekly signup cohort
Easy · cohorts · activation · date-bounds
dim_user holds user_id, account_created_at_utc, is_internal. fct_event holds user_id, occurred_at_utc, is_core_action. A user is activated when core-action events fall on at least two distinct UTC dates inside [account_created_at_utc, account_created_at_utc + 7 days). Return, for the last twelve complete weekly signup cohorts, the cohort week, cohort size, activated users and the activation rate. Exclude is_internal users. Every signup in the cohort week stays in the denominator, including users who never returned.
Approach
- Start from dim_user as the denominator spine with is_internal = FALSE and DATE_TRUNC('week', account_created_at_utc) as the cohort key. Driving the query from the event table instead would silently condition on having events and delete the entire non-activating population.
- Join fct_event on user_id with is_core_action = TRUE and a per-user bound, occurred_at_utc >= u.account_created_at_utc AND occurred_at_utc < u.account_created_at_utc + interval '7 days'. The bound is correlated to each user's own signup timestamp, not a single global date range.
- Aggregate per user with COUNT(DISTINCT occurred_at_utc::date) >= 2, then LEFT JOIN that back onto the spine and COALESCE the flag to FALSE so non-activators contribute a zero rather than vanishing.
- Restrict the published cohorts to those whose week ended at least eight days ago. A cohort younger than that has not finished its seven-day window, so its rate is mechanically low and reads as a decline.
- Roll up by summing the numerator and denominator per cohort week, and state the two-distinct-days threshold next to the number since it is a choice that re-bases the whole history if changed.
Follow-up
- Why two distinct days rather than one event? What happens to the published history if someone changes it to three?
- Invited seats and SSO-provisioned users get an account_created_at_utc at provisioning and may never sign in. Should they be in this denominator?
- The rate rose 3 points this week. What do you check before believing it?
Weekly visit-to-signup conversion split by acquisition channel
Easy · funnel · conversion · aggregation
From fct_session (session_id, visitor_id, started_at_utc, referrer_channel, is_bot_flagged, consent_state) and fct_event (visitor_id, occurred_at_utc, event_name), compute visit-to-signup conversion for one ISO week, split by channel. session_id is the unique key of fct_session. Denominator: distinct visitor_id with a session starting in the week, is_bot_flagged = FALSE and consent_state <> 'denied'. Numerator: those visitors with a 'signup_completed' event in the same week. Label each visitor with the referrer_channel of their first session in the window. Return channel, visitors, signups and rate, plus one all-channel total row.
Approach
- Build a visitor spine that is one row per visitor: filter sessions to the week, drop is_bot_flagged and consent_state = 'denied', then take the first session per visitor with ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY visitor_id ORDER BY started_at_utc, session_id) = 1 to carry the channel label. Collapsing to one row here is what makes the channel buckets mutually exclusive and the totals additive.
- session_id is the unique key, so that ordering is total and the label is reproducible. If the table carried no unique key you would have to write an explicit tie rule instead, because two sessions on different channels at the identical timestamp would otherwise label the visitor differently between runs.
- Attach the outcome as a semi-join (EXISTS on a signup_completed event for that visitor inside the same week) rather than a join to the event table, so a visitor who fires the event twice does not count twice and inflate the numerator past the denominator.
- Aggregate with COUNT() as visitors and COUNT() FILTER (WHERE signed_up) as signups, and compute the rate as signups::numeric / NULLIF(visitors, 0) so an empty channel returns NULL rather than a division error.
- Produce the total with GROUP BY GROUPING SETS ((channel), ()), which re-sums numerator and denominator for the total row. Averaging the channel rates gives a different and wrong number whenever channel volumes differ, which they always do.
- Verify the spine before trusting the output: COUNT(*) must equal COUNT(DISTINCT visitor_id), and the per-channel visitor counts must sum to the total row.
Worked solution (20 min)
- Write the filtered session CTE and check its row count against an unfiltered count, so you know how much volume the bot and consent filters removed.
- Add the ROW_NUMBER first-session pick and assert one row per visitor.
- Add the EXISTS outcome flag and aggregate with FILTER.
- Add GROUPING SETS for the total and format the rate to four decimal places.
- Spot-check one channel by hand: pull its visitor list, count signups directly, compare.
Expected result: One row per referrer_channel plus a total row, with visitors, signups and a decimal rate. Channels with zero signups appear with rate 0, not missing. The total rate lies strictly between the minimum and maximum channel rate unless one channel holds all the volume.
Verify it yourself
- Per-channel visitor counts sum exactly to the total row's visitor count.
- COUNT(*) equals COUNT(DISTINCT visitor_id) on the spine CTE.
- Replacing the EXISTS with a plain inner join changes the signup count only if duplicate signup_completed events exist; if it does change, say by how much.
- Every rate is between 0 and 1.
- Re-running the first-session pick with session_id removed from the ORDER BY returns the same labels; if it does not, visitors hold same-timestamp sessions on different channels and the tie rule is doing real work.
Follow-up
- The denominator is distinct visitors. If a browser release shortens cookie lifetime, what happens to this rate, and how would you tell that apart from a genuine drop?
- A visitor's first session is direct and their signup session is paid search. Your label says direct. When is that the wrong answer for the decision being made?
- How do you roll four weeks into a month, and why is averaging the four weekly rates wrong?
How would you approach a situation where your data is incomplete or noisy?
Medium · product sense and metrics
Approach
- Fix the population and the time window before naming any metric.
- Name one primary metric, then the guardrail that stops it being gamed.
- State what result would change your recommendation, so the answer is falsifiable.
Follow-up
- Which segment would you cut first, and what would that rule out?
- What would you do if the primary metric and the guardrail moved in opposite directions?
How do you prioritize tasks when faced with competing deadlines?
Medium · product sense and metrics
Approach
- Name one primary metric, then the guardrail that stops it being gamed.
- Restate the decision this analysis has to support, and who acts on the answer.
- State what result would change your recommendation, so the answer is falsifiable.
Follow-up
- Which segment would you cut first, and what would that rule out?
- How would you detect that the metric is being gamed rather than genuinely improving?
What metrics would you use to measure the success of a new dashboard feature?
Medium · product sense and metrics
Approach
- Decompose the metric into the rates that drive it, and say which one you would check first.
- Fix the population and the time window before naming any metric.
- Restate the decision this analysis has to support, and who acts on the answer.
Follow-up
- How would you detect that the metric is being gamed rather than genuinely improving?
- What would you do if the primary metric and the guardrail moved in opposite directions?
Randomise a shared workspace feature without contaminating control
Medium · randomisation unit · interference · design effect · clustering
A feature changes a collaborative surface inside a workspace: when one member uses it, other members of the same account see the result in their own view. You have dim_user (user_id, account_id, is_internal), dim_account (account_id, seats_assigned, lifecycle_status) and fct_event. Among active accounts the mean seats_assigned is 6, the coefficient of variation of that count is 1.5, and the intraclass correlation of the weekly core-action rate within an account is 0.10. Choose the randomisation unit, quantify what that choice costs in sample, and specify how you would compute inference.
Approach
- State the interference before choosing anything: a treated user changes what an untreated colleague sees, so user-level randomisation puts both arms inside one account and biases the contrast toward zero. Randomise on account_id.
- Price the clustering properly. With equal clusters the design effect is 1 + (m - 1) rho = 1 + 5(0.10) = 1.5. Sizes here are far from equal, so use 1 + ((CV^2 + 1) m - 1) rho = 1 + (3.25 x 6 - 1)(0.10) = 2.85. The equal-size shortcut understates the cost by nearly half.
- Decide the estimand before the estimator. An account-weighted mean gives every workspace one vote; a user-weighted mean lets the largest workspaces dominate. With this size skew the two can move in opposite directions, so pick the one the decision needs and write it down.
- Compute standard errors on the account, not the user: cluster-robust on account_id, or collapse each account to a single number and test those. Below roughly 40 clusters per arm, cluster-robust errors are biased downward, so use a wild cluster bootstrap or randomisation inference over the assignment.
- Buy back variance where you can. Stratify assignment by seat band and lifecycle_status before randomising, and decide in advance how the handful of very large accounts are handled, since one enterprise workspace can carry more users than a hundred single-seat ones.
Worked solution (30 min)
- Write the interference down: the outcome for user i depends on the treatment of other users in account(i), so the no-interference assumption fails at the user level and holds at the account level.
- Compute both design effects, 1.5 equal-size and 2.85 unequal-size, and use 2.85.
- Take the user-level sample requirement from the proportion shortcut, multiply by 2.85, then divide by the mean of 6 users per account to express it in accounts per arm.
- Specify the analysis: collapse to one row per account, regress the account-level outcome on variant with stratum fixed effects, and use a wild cluster bootstrap for inference.
- State the stopping rule up front: if the required account count exceeds the eligible population, the test is not runnable, and the alternatives are a longer window, a larger target effect, or a non-experimental read.
Expected result: Randomise on account_id. The unequal-size design effect is 2.85, so a user-level requirement of 12,000 per arm becomes 34,200 user-equivalents, which is 5,700 accounts per arm, with inference computed on accounts rather than users.
Verify it yourself
- The design effect must be at least 1, and must equal 1 when rho = 0 or when mean cluster size is 1. A value below 1 means a term is inverted.
- Recomputing the unequal-size formula with CV = 0 must return the equal-size value of 1.5.
- The cluster-robust standard error on account_id should come out about sqrt(2.85) = 1.69 times the naive user-level one. A ratio near 1 means the clustering was not applied.
Follow-up
- Suppose the feature is not workspace-scoped but changes a globally shared ranking model, so no clean cluster exists. What design gets you a causal read, and what does it cost you?
- You have 900 eligible active accounts in total. Given the design effect, what absolute lift can this test detect, and is the honest answer 'do not run it'?
- The intraclass correlation is an estimate from last quarter. What happens to your sizing if the true value is 0.25?
Decide whether a one-day core-action drop is real
Easy · seasonality · day-of-week · late-arriving-data
A daily dashboard counts distinct fct_event.user_id with is_core_action = TRUE, filtered on occurred_at_utc, and is read at 09:00 UTC. This morning it shows yesterday down 22% against the day before. fct_event is partitioned on received_at_utc. You have fct_event, fct_session and dim_user with thirteen months of history. Deliver a one-paragraph verdict, escalate or do not escalate, with the evidence that settles it, before anyone proposes a product hypothesis.
Approach
- Identify which two weekdays the comparison actually spans, then pull the same weekday-pair transition for the last 52 weeks and place the observed 22% inside that distribution. A day-over-day comparison in a product with a weekday pattern is a comparison of two different populations, so the reference class is the same transition historically, not the prior day.
- Measure partition completeness rather than assuming it. For each of the last 30 days compute the share of that day's occurred_at_utc rows that had landed by 09:00 UTC the following morning, split by surface; mobile clients buffer events offline, so the freshest partition is systematically short and the shortfall is not uniform across surfaces.
- Recompute the same series keyed on received_at_utc. If the drop survives on both keys it is not a lateness artefact; if it exists only on occurred_at_utc it is the partition filling in.
- Check the two exclusion flags before segmenting anything: a change in is_bot_flagged coverage or a batch of is_internal accounts entering or leaving moves a distinct-user count with no user behaviour behind it.
- Only if the movement survives all of the above, begin the segment decomposition. Say explicitly in the verdict which of these four checks the movement passed, so the next reader does not repeat them.
Follow-up
- What publication lag would you set for this dashboard, and how would you derive the number rather than pick it?
- If you switch the metric to received_at_utc, what does that break for anyone comparing to historical figures?
- How would you detect the same problem automatically, so a human does not have to notice it each morning?
Suggested practice checklist
For a candidate whose interviews will centre on A/B testing, metric movement and causal claims. Design comes before arithmetic, arithmetic before analysis, and the week ends by rehearsing the readout rather than the derivation.
Day 1 — Design one test end to end on paper
- Take a single feature change and write the full design: randomization unit, the exact point of exposure, the primary metric with its grain, guardrails, allocation, planned duration, and the decision rule committed before any data exists.
- Write why the randomization unit must sit at or above the level where treatment can spill over, and give one case where user-level randomization is still contaminated (shared accounts or devices, or two participants in the same marketplace).
- State in advance what you will do if the primary metric is flat while a secondary metric is significant.
Deliverable: A one-page test design with a decision rule written before launch.
Day 2 — Power arithmetic until it is automatic
- Compute required sample size per arm for a binary metric with the normal approximation, n is approximately 2 times (z for alpha/2 plus z for power) squared times p(1 minus p) divided by delta squared, for baselines of 2, 10 and 40 percent at a 5 percent relative lift, and note that for a fixed relative lift the requirement falls as the baseline rises because delta grows proportionally with p.
- Redo the calculation for a continuous metric using variance in place of p(1 minus p), and show why a heavy-tailed quantity such as revenue per user needs either far more traffic or a capped version with a stated cap.
- Convert one of the results into weeks given a weekly eligible traffic figure, then list the two honest ways to shorten it (accept a larger detectable effect, or reduce variance) and write why quietly lowering the power target is a decision to miss more real wins, not a speedup.
Deliverable: A small script or sheet that maps baseline, minimum detectable effect, alpha and power to sample size and weeks, cross-checked against a published calculator.
Day 3 — Variance and the unit-of-analysis problem
- Take a ratio metric whose denominator is not the randomization unit (clicks per session, randomized by user) and compute the standard error twice, once naively at session level and once by the delta method or a user-level bootstrap, then record how much the naive version understates it.
- Implement CUPED on simulated data: choose a pre-period covariate X measured before assignment, estimate theta as Cov(Y, X) divided by Var(X), and analyse Y minus theta times (X minus its mean) in place of Y. Confirm the variance of the adjusted outcome equals the raw variance multiplied by one minus the squared correlation between Y and X, so a correlation of 0.45 removes about 20 percent of the variance and not 80.
- Now run that simulation a few hundred times and confirm the adjusted effect estimate is unbiased for the same effect rather than numerically identical to the raw one. Within any single run the two differ, sometimes by a large fraction of the true effect, because the two arms' pre-period covariate means never coincide exactly in a finite sample; they agree in expectation, which is the property that matters and the one to state out loud.
Deliverable: A notebook showing the adjusted estimator with a measurably smaller variance than the raw one, plus a repeated-simulation table showing the two estimators agreeing on average while differing run by run.
Day 4 — Validity threats you can actually test for
- Run a sample ratio mismatch check as a chi-square goodness-of-fit test against the intended allocation, and write the three causes you would chase first (assignment logged before exposure, an arm-specific redirect or load failure, bot filtering applied asymmetrically).
- Simulate peeking: generate A/A data, test daily at alpha 0.05 across 14 looks, record the inflated false positive rate, then apply an alpha-spending boundary or commit to a fixed horizon and confirm the rate returns to nominal.
- Write how you would separate a novelty effect from a durable lift using the treatment effect plotted against days since first exposure, and what shape would change your recommendation.
Deliverable: One table showing the peeking false positive rate before and after correction, plus a written SRM triage list.
Day 5 — When randomization is not available
- Write the identifying assumption for difference-in-differences (parallel trends in the absence of treatment), then plot pre-period trends for two candidate control groups and justify rejecting one of them.
- Design a switchback test for a change where user-level randomization would leak across participants, choosing a time-block length against the carryover you expect and saying how you would detect carryover in the data.
- List what an interrupted time series or a synthetic control buys you and the one thing neither can rule out: an unobserved shock that coincides with the launch.
Deliverable: A one-page memo recommending a single quasi-experimental design and naming its weakest assumption explicitly.
Day 6 — The readout query
- Write the assignment-to-exposure join that returns exactly one row per unit per experiment, and handle units appearing in both arms by excluding and counting them rather than silently keeping one.
- Compute the per-arm metric, its variance and the relative lift with a confidence interval in SQL, then reproduce the identical numbers in a notebook as a cross-check.
- Add a segment breakdown and write the sentence that keeps it from being p-hacking: segments declared in advance, everything else reported as exploratory and corrected for multiplicity.
Deliverable: A single query that outputs the full readout table, matched to a notebook recomputation.
Day 7 — Present it to someone who will not read the appendix
- Give a 10-minute readout of a real or simulated experiment in the order decision, number, uncertainty, caveat.
- Have your listener ask "can we ship it" in the case where the primary is flat and a guardrail moved, and answer with a recommendation rather than a request for more data.
- Rewrite your opening line so the recommendation lands before any methodology.
Deliverable: A one-page readout whose first line is the recommendation.
Bring numbers, including the ones you are unsure of
An answer without a quantity is hard to interrogate, so interviewers keep probing until they find one. Come with the baseline, the change, the window it was measured over, and how confident you were. If the effect never got measured, say so and say what you would have measured. Fabricated precision is worse than an honest gap.
How do you handle disagreements within your team regarding a project's technical direction?
Medium · behavioural and stakeholder questions
Approach
- Quantify the outcome, including what you would not claim credit for.
- Name the disagreement or constraint, and how you resolved it with evidence.
- Pick a story where you drove the decision, not one where you observed it.
Follow-up
- What did you decide not to do, and why?
- How did you know the outcome was caused by your change?
Describe a time you identified an error in your data or analysis and how you corrected it.
Medium · behavioural and stakeholder questions
Approach
- Close with what you would do differently, concretely.
- Pick a story where you drove the decision, not one where you observed it.
- Quantify the outcome, including what you would not claim credit for.
Follow-up
- How did you know the outcome was caused by your change?
- What did you decide not to do, and why?
Defend a flat experiment readout against a post-hoc segment
Medium · experiments · segmentation · pushback
A feature you evaluated is flat on seven-day activation: +0.05pp with a 95% interval of [-0.47pp, +0.57pp], from 61,000 exposed users per arm in fct_experiment_exposure joined to dim_user and fct_event. Baseline activation is 32%. The launch team asks you to drop every surface except mobile_web, where the point estimate is +1.1pp, and re-run. You have ten minutes in their planning meeting. Deliver a spoken position: what you will and will not do, and the decision you recommend.
Approach
- Recognise what is being probed: whether you hold a statistical position under social pressure without becoming either rigid or apologetic. A generic answer says the segment is not significant; a strong one separates the request into a question that is answerable (is the mobile_web number real?) and one that is not (can we ship on it?), and answers both.
- Price the multiplicity out loud. The slice was chosen after seeing the results, so its estimate is selected on favourable noise and is biased away from zero. With k independent looks at a nominal 5% level, the chance of at least one false positive is 1 - 0.95^k: 26% at six segments, 64% at twenty. Quote the k you actually inspected, not the k you reported.
- Use the arithmetic already in front of you. On the point estimates, a +1.1pp mobile_web effect combined with a pooled +0.05pp implies the remaining surfaces average negative in proportion to mobile_web's share of exposures. State that as a testable implication of their story rather than as a rebuttal of it.
- Ask the one question that settles the category: was mobile_web named in the analysis plan before launch? If it was, it is a planned comparison and gets a corrected reading. If it was not, it is a hypothesis, and the honest move is to size the test that would confirm it.
- Convert the refusal into a cost. Size a mobile_web-only confirmatory test at the claimed effect, state the weeks of mobile_web traffic it needs, and close with the recommendation: do not ship this as a lift, and note that the interval already rules out anything at or above +0.6pp, which is itself a useful input to the roadmap.
Follow-up
- The confirmatory test you sized needs nine weeks of mobile_web traffic and the team has three. What do you recommend instead?
- Suppose mobile_web was pre-registered. How does your reading change, and what correction do you apply?
- Your interval excludes +0.6pp. Is that the same as saying the feature does nothing?