Crédit Agricole Cib Data Scientist Interview Questions & Guide 2026

The 60-second brief

The role of a Data Scientist at Crédit Agricole Cib is pivotal in leveraging data to glean insights that drive strategic decision-making and enhance business operations. As a Data Scientist, you will be at the intersection of finance and technology, where your analytical skills will be crucial in developing models that predict market trends, optimize processes, and ultimately contribute to the bank's competitive edge. Your work will impact various financial products and services, helping to tailor solutions that meet client needs while managing risks effectively.

In modelling rounds the live question is usually why this model class for this problem, and how you would know six weeks after launch that it is still working. Deriving gradients by hand is rarely what is being probed.

Focus areas

• Pick a randomisation unit that respects interference
• Decompose a metric move by segment and mix
• Size an experiment before anyone launches it

Overview

In this role, you will engage with complex datasets, employing statistical analysis and machine learning techniques to interpret data patterns and deliver actionable insights. You will collaborate with cross-functional teams including product managers, software engineers, and risk analysts, ensuring that your findings translate into practical applications that enhance customer experiences and operational efficiencies. The scale and complexity of financial data present unique challenges, making this position both stimulating and critical for the bank’s ongoing growth and innovation.

The Crédit Agricole Cib interview process

Crédit Agricole Cib candidates report 3 rounds · ≈ 3-5 weeks. The stages below are what candidates describe, not a published process.

Psychometric Tests

An added round often puts you in front of someone outside the core hiring team: a partner engineer, a product owner, a domain expert, sometimes a more senior manager. The question they are really asking is not whether you can do the work but whether they would trust a number that came from you. That changes what a good answer looks like. Lead with what the decision cost and what it changed, keep the method available but not central, and be plain about the limits of your evidence. Overstating a result is the fastest way to lose this round.

What to demonstrate

• Whether you can explain a technical choice to someone who will never read your code, without either flattening it into nothing or hiding inside jargon
• Honesty about evidence strength: what the analysis establishes, what it only suggests, and what it cannot say at all
• How you take disagreement, specifically whether you update on a good objection, hold your position with reasons, or fold on contact

How to prepare

• Write the two-sentence version of your most technical project for a non-specialist, then check that neither sentence needs a method name to make sense.
• For one result you are proud of, write the strongest objection someone could raise and a response that concedes the part of it that is correct.
• Prepare one decision that turned out to be wrong: how you found out, what it cost, and what you changed afterwards. A senior cross-functional interviewer asks for this more often than a technical one does.

Technical Assessment

Before anything else, this round is a reading test. You are given a small schema and a question phrased in business language, and most of the difficulty sits in the gap between them. Who counts as an active user, does a refunded order still count as an order, is that date column an event time or a load time. Weak answers start typing immediately and compute something precise about the wrong population. Strong ones pin the definition in one sentence, name the column that encodes it, then write the query. On a timed assessment with nobody to tell, write the definition in a comment anyway.

What to demonstrate

• Whether an ambiguous term becomes a specific column and filter before any computation happens
• Whether you read the schema for keys and cardinality rather than only for column names
• Whether the result answers the question at the grain it was asked at, per user or per session or per day

How to prepare

• Take three metrics you already use and write down the exact filter and exact grain behind each, then practise stating one of them in a single sentence out loud
• On a schema you have never seen, spend the first minute writing what one row of each table means and which key it is unique on, then predict which joins can duplicate rows
• Rehearse a version where the definition changes halfway through, and edit the query you have instead of starting over

Interviews with Managers

Rounds outside the standard loop often open with something deliberately under-specified: a loose business problem, an open question about a product area, a dataset described in one sentence. The common failure is surveying, listing six plausible approaches and committing to none of them. The thing that separates a strong answer is scoping out loud. State what you are treating as the goal, name the metric you would move, say what you are choosing not to do and why, then take one path through to an actual answer. An interviewer can follow you down a narrow path. Nobody can grade a menu.

What to demonstrate

• Whether you turn an ambiguous prompt into a stated question with a measurable outcome before doing any work
• The judgement visible in what you cut, and whether you say why you cut it rather than silently dropping it
• Whether you land on a concrete recommendation with its caveat attached, rather than an unranked set of options

How to prepare

• Take three vague prompts, such as 'is this feature working', 'why did retention drop', and 'should we expand into a new segment'. For each, write one sentence of goal, one primary metric with its window, and two things you are explicitly not doing.
• Practise giving the recommendation first and the reasoning second, in five minutes. Loosely defined rounds are usually time-boxed, and an answer that arrives last often does not arrive.
• Keep a running assumption list as you talk, on paper or in the shared doc, so the interviewer can challenge one assumption instead of your whole answer.

Where candidates lose points

Reading a pooled rate that moved because the mix moved, not because any behaviour changed

A pooled conversion rate is a weighted average, and a shift in the weights can move it in the opposite direction to every one of its parts. A paid campaign that brings low-converting traffic drops overall signup conversion even if desktop, mobile web and app conversion each rose that week, which is Simpson's paradox and it is the single most common cause of an inexplicable dashboard move. The discipline is to decompose before explaining: recompute the rate holding last period's segment weights fixed, and compare that counterfactual to the actual, so the mix effect and the rate effect are separated numerically rather than argued about. Segment on the dimensions that actually reweight, which in this domain are almost always device_type, referrer_channel, country and new versus returning.

Comparing cohort retention curves of different maturities, or building the curve from users who are still present

A cohort four weeks old has no week-8 value, so an average taken across cohorts silently drops young cohorts from the later columns and keeps them in the earlier ones. The curve then bends upward at the tail, and the reading that 'retention is improving over time' is an artefact of which cohorts survived to be measured. The same error appears in the denominator when retention is computed over users active in the current period rather than over the full original cohort, which conditions on survival and guarantees a flattering number. The fix is a triangle: fix the cohort at signup, bound every window on both sides, and only compare cells where every cohort has had the full elapsed time, publishing the rest as blank rather than as a partial average.

Naming a model class before naming the deployment constraints

Set out the latency budget, the label delay, the retraining cadence, the interpretability requirement and the number of labelled examples, then pick the model that fits them. A boosted-tree answer to a problem where each decision must be explained to the affected user is a well-executed answer to the wrong question.

Comparing periods without accounting for seasonality or day-of-week

Compare whole weeks against whole weeks and check whether the same swing appeared in prior cycles or prior years before attributing it to anything you changed. Weekday and weekend populations often differ enough that a Tuesday-to-Saturday comparison is meaningless.

Questions & practice

Describe how to detect overfitting in a model.

Medium · machine learning and modelling

Approach

1. Frame the prediction: the label, the moment of prediction, and the action it triggers.
2. Say how the offline result would be validated online before it is trusted.
3. Pick an evaluation metric that matches the cost of each error type, not a default.

Follow-up

• What would you monitor after launch to know the model is still valid?
• Where could label leakage enter this setup?

What techniques would you use to manage class imbalance in classification tasks?

Medium · machine learning and modelling

Approach

1. Frame the prediction: the label, the moment of prediction, and the action it triggers.
2. Check what information would not exist at prediction time, and exclude it.
3. Say how the offline result would be validated online before it is trusted.

Follow-up

• How would you choose the decision threshold, and who owns that choice?
• What would you monitor after launch to know the model is still valid?

Split a pooled conversion drop into rate and mix

Medium · mix shift · decomposition · pandas

You have weekly visit-to-signup counts by segment: a DataFrame with week, device_type, referrer_channel, visitors and signups. The pooled rate fell 0.84 percentage points between two consecutive weeks while several individual segments rose. Write a function that, for a caller-supplied list of segment columns, splits the pooled change into a rate effect, a mix effect and an interaction term that sum exactly to the observed change. Return those three scalars plus a per-segment contribution table sorted by absolute contribution, so the largest single driver can be named.

Approach

1. State the algebra before coding: the pooled rate is r = sum over segments of w_s * r_s, with w_s the segment's share of the denominator. Then r1 - r0 decomposes exactly into sum(w_s0 * (r_s1 - r_s0)) for rate, sum((w_s1 - w_s0) * r_s0) for mix, and sum((w_s1 - w_s0) * (r_s1 - r_s0)) for interaction. The identity is per-segment, so it holds for any numbers you put in the four slots.
2. Pivot both weeks onto a common segment index with an outer join so a segment that appeared or vanished is kept rather than dropped, then decide what rate to give a segment with no visitors in one of the weeks, and document the choice. The identity stays exact either way because the missing week's weight is 0, but the attribution does not. Filling the missing rate with 0 sends an appearing segment's entire w_s1 * r_s1 into the interaction term, since w_s0 = 0 makes both the rate term and the mix term (w_s1 - w_s0) * r_s0 identically zero; a vanishing segment then splits as -w_s0 * r_s0 in rate, -w_s0 * r_s0 in mix and +w_s0 * r_s0 in interaction.
3. The convention used below instead imputes the missing week's rate as that week's pooled rate. A vanishing segment then lands wholly in mix at -w_s0 * r_s0, with rate and interaction cancelling; an appearing segment puts w_s1 * r_pooled0 in mix (volume arriving at the average rate) and only w_s1 * (r_s1 - r_pooled0) in interaction (its rate differing from that average). Impute by which week the segment is missing from, never by argument order, or the swap identities below stop holding.
4. Guard the division where visitors is 0 so no NaN enters the vectors, because a single NaN poisons every sum. A segment with zero visitors in both weeks contributes exactly 0 and can be dropped; a segment missing from only one week does not contribute 0, and where its contribution lands is settled by the convention above, not by the guard.
5. Compute the three components as vectors over segments, then sum. Keep the vectors, because the per-segment contribution table is what turns the decomposition into an explanation.
6. Assert that the three components sum to the observed pooled change within floating-point tolerance. This identity is exact, so a mismatch means an implementation bug, not a modelling judgement.

Worked solution (25 min)

1. Aggregate to one row per (week, segment tuple) with summed visitors and signups, then split into w0 and w1 frames and align with an outer join, filling missing visitors and signups with 0.
2. Compute w_s = visitors / visitors.sum() within each week, and r_s = signups / visitors only where visitors > 0. Where a week's visitors are 0, set that week's r_s to that week's pooled rate, the stated convention; never leave it NaN.
3. rate_effect = (w0 * (r1 - r0)).sum(); mix_effect = ((w1 - w0) * r0).sum(); interaction = ((w1 - w0) * (r1 - r0)).sum().
4. contribution = w0*(r1-r0) + (w1-w0)r0 + (w1-w0)(r1-r0) per segment, which reduces to w1r1 - w0r0; sort by abs and return the head.
5. assert abs(rate + mix + interaction - (pooled1 - pooled0)) < 1e-12.

Expected result: Three scalars summing exactly to the observed pooled change, plus a segment table whose contribution column also sums to that change. In the stated case rate and mix carry opposite signs: several segments converted better while volume moved toward a weaker-converting one, which is what makes the pooled move look inexplicable until it is split.

Verify it yourself

• On synthetic data where every segment appears in both weeks, every segment rate is held constant and only the weights move, rate_effect and interaction are exactly 0.
• On synthetic data where every segment appears in both weeks, weights are held constant and only rates move, mix_effect and interaction are exactly 0.
• The per-segment contribution column sums to the pooled change, matching the sum of the three scalars.
• Swapping the two weeks negates the total, as it must, but not the parts. Assert the three identities that actually hold: the interaction term is exactly invariant, because both of its factors change sign; the swapped rate effect equals -(rate_effect + interaction); and the swapped mix effect equals -(mix_effect + interaction). They still sum to the negated pooled change. Expecting all three to flip sign is the common wrong assertion.
• Plant a segment present only in week 1, holding 3 percent of week-1 visitors at a rate well below pooled. Under the documented pooled-rate convention its mix contribution is w_s1 * r_pooled0 and its interaction contribution is w_s1 * (r_s1 - r_pooled0), with a rate contribution of exactly 0; under a zero-fill convention its mix contribution is exactly 0 and the whole w_s1 * r_s1 lands in interaction. Assert whichever one the function documents, and fail if mix is asserted non-zero while the code zero-fills.

Follow-up

• The mix effect accounts for 0.71 of the 0.84 point drop, driven by paid_social volume. What is your recommendation, and what would change it?
• Why is a two-way split into a counterfactual rate and a residual also exact, and when would you prefer it to the three-way version?
• Segmenting on device and channel leaves a large interaction term. What does that tell you about the choice of segments?

Explain the concept of embeddings in natural language processing.

Medium · sql and data manipulation

Approach

1. State the window function and its partition and ordering out loud before writing it.
2. Handle the rows that do not match: a LEFT JOIN with a NULL check is usually the question.
3. Say which table is the grain you start from, and join outward from it.

Follow-up

• How would you verify this result without re-running the same query?
• How does the query change if the join becomes one-to-many?

What are the differences between lock and unlock in Pandas?

Medium · sql and data manipulation

Approach

1. Check whether any join is one-to-many before aggregating, or the sums inflate.
2. Compute rates by summing numerator and denominator separately, never by averaging rates.
3. Say which table is the grain you start from, and join outward from it.

Follow-up

• What breaks if events arrive late or out of order?
• How would you verify this result without re-running the same query?

Write a function to open a text file in Python.

Medium · sql and data manipulation

Approach

1. Check whether any join is one-to-many before aggregating, or the sums inflate.
2. Handle the rows that do not match: a LEFT JOIN with a NULL check is usually the question.
3. Compute rates by summing numerator and denominator separately, never by averaging rates.

Follow-up

• How does the query change if the join becomes one-to-many?
• What breaks if events arrive late or out of order?

Paying accounts with no active seat in 28 days

Medium · anti-join · null-semantics · retention-risk

dim_account holds account_id, account_type, lifecycle_status, seats_licensed. fct_event holds account_id, user_id, occurred_at_utc, is_core_action, and its account_id is NULL for every signed-out and pre-signup event. Find accounts with lifecycle_status = 'active' and account_type <> 'internal' that had no distinct user complete a core action in the trailing 28 days. Return account_id, seats_licensed and days since that account's most recent core action, with NULL where the account has never emitted one. Order by seats_licensed descending.

Approach

1. Build the recent-activity set first: fct_event rows with is_core_action = TRUE, occurred_at_utc >= now() - interval '28 days', and an explicit account_id IS NOT NULL. Making the NULL exclusion explicit in the CTE is what lets you reason about the anti-join afterwards.
2. Express the exclusion with NOT EXISTS (correlated on account_id) or a LEFT JOIN with an IS NULL guard. Do not use NOT IN against this column: it is nullable, and SQL's three-valued logic turns the whole predicate UNKNOWN, returning zero rows.
3. Compute last-seen separately as MAX(occurred_at_utc) per account over all history, LEFT JOINed on, so an account that has never emitted a core action (NULL) is distinguishable from one that went quiet six weeks ago. Those two cases have different causes and different owners.
4. Rank by seats_licensed, or better by the account's current mrr_cents_constant_fx if you are allowed the subscription table, because a silent fifty-seat account is a renewal conversation and a silent one-seat account is noise.
5. Before shipping, check whether the never-seen group is a cluster by signup date or surface. A block of accounts with no events at all is usually an instrumentation gap, not a set of customers who stopped using the product.

Worked solution (25 min)

1. Count NULL account_id rows in fct_event over the window so you know the trap is live in this data rather than hypothetical.
2. Write the active-account spine and the 28-day activity CTE.
3. Write the anti-join with NOT EXISTS, then deliberately run the NOT IN version and record that it returns zero rows.
4. Add the all-time MAX(occurred_at_utc) LEFT JOIN and derive days_since as a date difference.
5. Split the output into 'quiet' and 'never seen' and eyeball the never-seen group for a shared signup window or surface.

Expected result: One row per silent active account with seats_licensed and days_since_last_core_action, ordered by seats_licensed descending. Accounts that never emitted a core action show NULL and are reported as a separate group rather than as the worst churn risks.

Verify it yourself

• Silent accounts plus accounts with at least one active user equals the total count of active non-internal accounts.
• The NOT IN variant returns zero rows, which is the demonstration that a NULL is present.
• No account_id appears twice in the output.
• Every days_since_last_core_action is either NULL or greater than 28.

Follow-up

• How would you distinguish a genuinely idle account from one whose events lost their account_id after an instrumentation change?
• Would you count on fct_event.account_id or resolve user_id through dim_user instead, and what does each choice miss?
• Licensed-seat utilisation is the continuous version of this. How would you turn this boolean into that ratio?

Given a dataset, what steps would you take to analyze it and present your findings?

Medium · product sense and metrics

Approach

1. Decompose the metric into the rates that drive it, and say which one you would check first.
2. Fix the population and the time window before naming any metric.
3. Restate the decision this analysis has to support, and who acts on the answer.

Follow-up

• Which segment would you cut first, and what would that rule out?
• What would you do if the primary metric and the guardrail moved in opposite directions?

How would you approach a project aimed at predicting customer churn?

Medium · product sense and metrics

Approach

1. Name one primary metric, then the guardrail that stops it being gamed.
2. Decompose the metric into the rates that drive it, and say which one you would check first.
3. Restate the decision this analysis has to support, and who acts on the answer.

Follow-up

• What would you do if the primary metric and the guardrail moved in opposite directions?
• How would you detect that the metric is being gamed rather than genuinely improving?

How do you prioritize tasks when working on multiple projects?

Medium · product sense and metrics

Approach

1. Fix the population and the time window before naming any metric.
2. Decompose the metric into the rates that drive it, and say which one you would check first.
3. Restate the decision this analysis has to support, and who acts on the answer.

Follow-up

• How would you detect that the metric is being gamed rather than genuinely improving?
• Which segment would you cut first, and what would that rule out?

How would you extract text from images?

Medium

Approach

1. Clarify what is being asked and what a complete answer would contain.
2. State your assumptions explicitly before working the problem.
3. Say what you would check first and why it is the highest-information step.

Follow-up

• How would you know your answer was wrong?
• What assumption would you test first?

A test that won on day four and lost by day twelve

Medium · peeking · sequential testing · multiple comparisons · winner's curse

A two-week test was checked every morning. On day four the primary metric crossed p = 0.03 and the team shipped. By day twelve, with logging still running, the estimate had fallen to a 0.2% lift at p = 0.61. The day-four deck also reported a significant 9% lift among paid_search visitors on mobile_web, one of twenty segments inspected. Explain both patterns quantitatively, say what the day-four evidence was actually worth, and specify the monitoring rule that prevents a repeat.

Approach

1. Price the peeking. A fixed-sample test controls type I error at one pre-declared look. Ten daily looks at a nominal 5% raise the false positive rate to roughly 0.15 to 0.20, because the running test statistic takes a random walk that will eventually cross the boundary under the null.
2. Price the winner's curse separately, because it is a different error. Conditioning an estimate on having crossed the threshold biases it away from zero, by a factor of roughly 3 when true power is 20% and only about 1.1 at 80% power. Day four sits at roughly 29% of planned information, which is exactly the low-power case.
3. Read day twelve as the better estimate rather than as a contradiction. Nothing regressed; the day-four value was an extreme draw that was selected precisely for being extreme.
4. Price the segment claim. Across twenty segments at a nominal 5%, at least one crosses about 64% of the time under a global null, since 1 - 0.95^20 = 0.64, and the slice that surfaces is by construction the one with the most favourable noise.
5. Specify the rule instead of scolding. Either fix the horizon and look once, or use group-sequential boundaries such as O'Brien-Fleming that spend almost no alpha early, or use always-valid confidence sequences that stay correct under continuous monitoring. Pre-register the small set of segments, correct across the ones tested, and treat anything found afterwards as a hypothesis needing its own powered test.

Worked solution (25 min)

1. Count the looks actually taken, twelve daily, and state the inflated alpha band of 0.15 to 0.20 for ten looks, rising with more.
2. Place day four on the information fraction, about 4/14 = 29% of planned sample, and apply the exaggeration factor for low power.
3. Compute 1 - 0.95^k for the number of segments actually inspected; with k = 20 this is 0.64.
4. Report the day-twelve interval as the estimate and say plainly that the experiment supports no effect at any size the team would ship for.
5. Write the rule into the experiment template: horizon and segments declared at launch, sequential boundaries if interim looks are needed at all.

Expected result: The day-four result is consistent with pure noise: ten looks inflate the false positive rate to roughly 0.15 to 0.20, and an estimate conditioned on crossing at about 29% information is exaggerated by roughly a factor of three at low power. The segment finding appears about 64% of the time across twenty slices under a global null. The supportable conclusion is a 0.2% lift whose interval covers zero.

Verify it yourself

• 1 - 0.95^20 = 0.6415. If your family-wise number lands near 0.05 you have computed the per-test rate instead.
• The day-twelve standard error should be roughly sqrt(12/4) = 1.7 times smaller than day four's. If the interval did not narrow, sample was not accumulating and there is a second problem.
• A Bonferroni threshold for twenty segments is 0.0025; check whether the mobile_web result would have survived it.

Follow-up

• Under O'Brien-Fleming with five planned looks, roughly what nominal p-value would the first look have needed to stop?
• The feature already shipped. What analysis can you still run, and what can it not tell you?
• If mobile_web paid_search were genuinely the only affected segment, how would you design the confirmatory test and how large would it have to be?

Decide whether a one-day core-action drop is real

Easy · seasonality · day-of-week · late-arriving-data

A daily dashboard counts distinct fct_event.user_id with is_core_action = TRUE, filtered on occurred_at_utc, and is read at 09:00 UTC. This morning it shows yesterday down 22% against the day before. fct_event is partitioned on received_at_utc. You have fct_event, fct_session and dim_user with thirteen months of history. Deliver a one-paragraph verdict, escalate or do not escalate, with the evidence that settles it, before anyone proposes a product hypothesis.

Approach

1. Identify which two weekdays the comparison actually spans, then pull the same weekday-pair transition for the last 52 weeks and place the observed 22% inside that distribution. A day-over-day comparison in a product with a weekday pattern is a comparison of two different populations, so the reference class is the same transition historically, not the prior day.
2. Measure partition completeness rather than assuming it. For each of the last 30 days compute the share of that day's occurred_at_utc rows that had landed by 09:00 UTC the following morning, split by surface; mobile clients buffer events offline, so the freshest partition is systematically short and the shortfall is not uniform across surfaces.
3. Recompute the same series keyed on received_at_utc. If the drop survives on both keys it is not a lateness artefact; if it exists only on occurred_at_utc it is the partition filling in.
4. Check the two exclusion flags before segmenting anything: a change in is_bot_flagged coverage or a batch of is_internal accounts entering or leaving moves a distinct-user count with no user behaviour behind it.
5. Only if the movement survives all of the above, begin the segment decomposition. Say explicitly in the verdict which of these four checks the movement passed, so the next reader does not repeat them.

Follow-up

• What publication lag would you set for this dashboard, and how would you derive the number rather than pick it?
• If you switch the metric to received_at_utc, what does that break for anyone comparing to historical figures?
• How would you detect the same problem automatically, so a human does not have to notice it each morning?

Suggested practice checklist

For a candidate whose interviews will centre on A/B testing, metric movement and causal claims. Design comes before arithmetic, arithmetic before analysis, and the week ends by rehearsing the readout rather than the derivation.

Day 1 — Design one test end to end on paper

• Take a single feature change and write the full design: randomization unit, the exact point of exposure, the primary metric with its grain, guardrails, allocation, planned duration, and the decision rule committed before any data exists.
• Write why the randomization unit must sit at or above the level where treatment can spill over, and give one case where user-level randomization is still contaminated (shared accounts or devices, or two participants in the same marketplace).
• State in advance what you will do if the primary metric is flat while a secondary metric is significant.

Deliverable: A one-page test design with a decision rule written before launch.

Day 2 — Power arithmetic until it is automatic

• Compute required sample size per arm for a binary metric with the normal approximation, n is approximately 2 times (z for alpha/2 plus z for power) squared times p(1 minus p) divided by delta squared, for baselines of 2, 10 and 40 percent at a 5 percent relative lift, and note that for a fixed relative lift the requirement falls as the baseline rises because delta grows proportionally with p.
• Redo the calculation for a continuous metric using variance in place of p(1 minus p), and show why a heavy-tailed quantity such as revenue per user needs either far more traffic or a capped version with a stated cap.
• Convert one of the results into weeks given a weekly eligible traffic figure, then list the two honest ways to shorten it (accept a larger detectable effect, or reduce variance) and write why quietly lowering the power target is a decision to miss more real wins, not a speedup.

Deliverable: A small script or sheet that maps baseline, minimum detectable effect, alpha and power to sample size and weeks, cross-checked against a published calculator.

Day 3 — Variance and the unit-of-analysis problem

• Take a ratio metric whose denominator is not the randomization unit (clicks per session, randomized by user) and compute the standard error twice, once naively at session level and once by the delta method or a user-level bootstrap, then record how much the naive version understates it.
• Implement CUPED on simulated data: choose a pre-period covariate X measured before assignment, estimate theta as Cov(Y, X) divided by Var(X), and analyse Y minus theta times (X minus its mean) in place of Y. Confirm the variance of the adjusted outcome equals the raw variance multiplied by one minus the squared correlation between Y and X, so a correlation of 0.45 removes about 20 percent of the variance and not 80.
• Now run that simulation a few hundred times and confirm the adjusted effect estimate is unbiased for the same effect rather than numerically identical to the raw one. Within any single run the two differ, sometimes by a large fraction of the true effect, because the two arms' pre-period covariate means never coincide exactly in a finite sample; they agree in expectation, which is the property that matters and the one to state out loud.

Deliverable: A notebook showing the adjusted estimator with a measurably smaller variance than the raw one, plus a repeated-simulation table showing the two estimators agreeing on average while differing run by run.

Day 4 — Validity threats you can actually test for

• Run a sample ratio mismatch check as a chi-square goodness-of-fit test against the intended allocation, and write the three causes you would chase first (assignment logged before exposure, an arm-specific redirect or load failure, bot filtering applied asymmetrically).
• Simulate peeking: generate A/A data, test daily at alpha 0.05 across 14 looks, record the inflated false positive rate, then apply an alpha-spending boundary or commit to a fixed horizon and confirm the rate returns to nominal.
• Write how you would separate a novelty effect from a durable lift using the treatment effect plotted against days since first exposure, and what shape would change your recommendation.

Deliverable: One table showing the peeking false positive rate before and after correction, plus a written SRM triage list.

Day 5 — When randomization is not available

• Write the identifying assumption for difference-in-differences (parallel trends in the absence of treatment), then plot pre-period trends for two candidate control groups and justify rejecting one of them.
• Design a switchback test for a change where user-level randomization would leak across participants, choosing a time-block length against the carryover you expect and saying how you would detect carryover in the data.
• List what an interrupted time series or a synthetic control buys you and the one thing neither can rule out: an unobserved shock that coincides with the launch.

Deliverable: A one-page memo recommending a single quasi-experimental design and naming its weakest assumption explicitly.

Day 6 — The readout query

• Write the assignment-to-exposure join that returns exactly one row per unit per experiment, and handle units appearing in both arms by excluding and counting them rather than silently keeping one.
• Compute the per-arm metric, its variance and the relative lift with a confidence interval in SQL, then reproduce the identical numbers in a notebook as a cross-check.
• Add a segment breakdown and write the sentence that keeps it from being p-hacking: segments declared in advance, everything else reported as exploratory and corrected for multiplicity.

Deliverable: A single query that outputs the full readout table, matched to a notebook recomputation.

Day 7 — Present it to someone who will not read the appendix

• Give a 10-minute readout of a real or simulated experiment in the order decision, number, uncertainty, caveat.
• Have your listener ask "can we ship it" in the case where the primary is flat and a guardrail moved, and answer with a recommendation rather than a request for more data.
• Rewrite your opening line so the recommendation lands before any methodology.

Deliverable: A one-page readout whose first line is the recommendation.

Bring numbers, including the ones you are unsure of

An answer without a quantity is hard to interrogate, so interviewers keep probing until they find one. Come with the baseline, the change, the window it was measured over, and how confident you were. If the effect never got measured, say so and say what you would have measured. Fabricated precision is worse than an honest gap.

Describe a challenging project you worked on and how you overcame obstacles.

Medium · behavioural and stakeholder questions

Approach

1. Pick a story where you drove the decision, not one where you observed it.
2. Name the disagreement or constraint, and how you resolved it with evidence.
3. State the situation in two sentences and spend the rest on your reasoning.

Follow-up

• What did you decide not to do, and why?
• How did you know the outcome was caused by your change?

Explain a wide interval to a non-technical executive

Medium · communication · uncertainty · pricing

A pricing change is under consideration. Your best estimate of its effect on trial-to-paid conversion is a 1.8pp drop, with a 95% interval from a 4.6pp drop to a 1.0pp rise, read from a geo holdout rather than a randomised test. An executive preparing a board slide asks you for 'the number'. You have ninety seconds and one slide, and the words confidence interval, p-value and significance are not usable with this audience. Deliver the slide headline, the single supporting line, and what you say aloud.

Approach

1. Recognise what is being probed: whether you can carry uncertainty into a decision instead of either hiding it or hiding behind it. The generic answer promises to explain the interval in plain English; the strong one replaces the question 'what is the number' with 'across this range, where does the decision change'.
2. Find the threshold before you draft anything. Ask what the pricing case assumes, then compute the conversion drop at which the higher price stops adding revenue: price uplift on the conversions kept against the revenue lost from conversions forgone. That single figure is what makes the range legible.
3. Restate the estimate and both bounds in the unit the audience already reasons in. Convert percentage points into monthly first-paid conversions at current trial volume, then into mrr_cents_constant_fx, so the slide reads as money per month rather than as statistics.
4. Place the range against the break-even and say which part of it sits on each side. If most of the range clears the threshold, that is a recommendation to proceed with a monitoring plan; if the range straddles it, that is a recommendation to narrow the range first.
5. Name what would narrow it and what that costs in weeks, then give one recommendation with an explicit condition for revisiting it. Uncertainty stated without a next step is read as indecision and the midpoint gets used anyway.

Follow-up

• The executive says to give the midpoint and they will manage the risk. What do you do?
• How does the slide change if the interval were a 4.6pp to 0.2pp drop, with no positive outcomes in range?
• Why is a geo holdout the credible read here rather than the attributed channel numbers you already have?

Handle a request for numbers supporting a decision already made

Hard · integrity · framing · stakeholder

A senior leader has already decided to sunset a plan tier and asks you for the analysis showing it is the right call. Accounts on that tier carry 6% of MRR at constant FX and have the highest licensed-seat utilisation in the book. The leader's support matters to your next review cycle, and the decision is being presented in four days. Deliver what you produce, what you decline to produce, and the exact sentence you will say in the meeting where the number appears on a slide.

Approach

1. Recognise what is being probed: whether you can find the legitimate request inside an illegitimate framing instead of either complying or refusing on principle. The generic answer promises to push back; the strong one produces something genuinely useful and states its limits in the room, without ambushing anybody.
2. Separate the decision from the justification. Sunsetting the tier may be correct for reasons the data does not hold, such as support cost, roadmap surface area or sales motion. What you decline is a one-sided document. What you produce is the case read both ways, which also happens to be more useful to the leader.
3. Build the symmetric analysis: MRR at risk at constant FX, the share of affected accounts with a plausible migration path given seats_licensed and billing_term, the recovery rate assumed for that migration and where it came from, and the downside case in which high-utilisation accounts treat the sunset as a reason to re-evaluate the vendor entirely.
4. Surface the inconvenient fact privately and early. The highest seat utilisation in the book is a retention signal, and the leader should hold it before the room does, so they can incorporate it rather than be caught by it.
5. Agree the meeting sentence in advance with the leader, so that nobody is surprised. Something to the effect that the tier is 6% of MRR and its accounts are the most heavily used in the book, and that the case for sunsetting rests on cost and focus rather than on revenue. That is true, it supports the decision on its real grounds, and it stops the deck claiming the numbers endorse it.
6. Decide your own line before you need it: what you will not put your name to, and that the route if asked anyway is your own manager rather than a confrontation in the meeting.

Follow-up

• The deck circulates with your analysis included and the downside case removed. What do you do, and by when?
• What changes if the honest analysis says the sunset is clearly the wrong call?
• How do you write the same memo when the leader is your skip-level and the meeting is tomorrow?