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Coalition Greenwich Data Scientist Interview Questions & Guide 2026

Timed data scientist practice for Coalition Greenwich: short SQL and probability sets run end to end, then scored against a rubric.

The 60-second brief

As a Data Scientist at Coalition Greenwich, you are at the intersection of high-stakes financial market intelligence and advanced analytical modeling. Your work directly informs the strategic decisions of global financial institutions, asset managers, and service providers. By leveraging proprietary datasets, you transform raw market data into actionable insights that define the competitive landscape of the financial services industry.

The boundary with engineering varies enough to be worth asking about directly. Some seats end at the analysis and the writeup; others carry feature pipelines, scheduling and alerting, which decides whether production data plumbing belongs in your prep at all.

Focus areas

  • Turn a vague request into a measurable question
  • Pick a randomisation unit that respects interference
  • Decompose a metric move by segment and mix

Overview

This role is critical to the firm’s mission of providing objective, data-driven benchmarks. You will not only build complex machine learning models but also communicate their implications to stakeholders who rely on your precision. The work is intellectually rigorous, requiring a blend of technical depth in statistics and algorithms, combined with the ability to translate technical findings into a business-ready narrative.

The Coalition Greenwich interview process

Coalition Greenwich candidates report 4 rounds · ≈ 3-5 weeks. The stages below are what candidates describe, not a published process.

Screening Assessment

A handful of shapes account for most of what gets asked in this format: a ranking or deduplication inside groups, a running or rolling total, a period-over-period comparison, and a cohort tracked forward over time. Recognising the shape quickly is most of the speed here; deriving it from scratch while a clock runs is where the time goes. Know that a window function keeps every row while a GROUP BY collapses them, and know which one the question needs. If the exercise is in Python instead of SQL, the same shapes arrive as groupby with transform, shift and merge, and the same grain mistakes are available.

What to demonstrate

  • Whether you reach the right construct without a detour, such as ROW_NUMBER over a partition to deduplicate instead of a self-join against a MAX subquery
  • Whether you know what your window frame actually is, since adding ORDER BY inside OVER changes the default frame and silently changes a running total
  • Whether the thing runs. A near-miss that throws an error scores below a plainer query that returns the right rows.

How to prepare

  • Write each of the four shapes once from memory against a small schema and keep the working version somewhere you will reread it: dedupe with ROW_NUMBER, a running total, a month-over-month change with LAG, and a retention table
  • Compute one running total twice on data with tied timestamps, once on the default frame and once with ROWS BETWEEN UNBOUNDED PRECEDING AND CURRENT ROW, and look at where the two disagree
  • If Python is on the table, rebuild the dedupe and the running total with groupby and cumsum, then assert the two implementations return identical rows

Technical Evaluation

This round decides whether someone can hand you a schema and a question and trust the number that comes back. Correctness under a clock is the bar, not clever syntax. The habit that separates strong from weak answers is checking the grain: after every join, know how many rows you expect and whether the count moved. Most wrong answers in this format are not wrong logic, they are a fan-out from a key that turned out not to be unique, or a filter applied before an aggregate when it belonged after. Say what you expect before you run it.

What to demonstrate

  • Whether your row counts survive each join, and whether you notice on your own when they do not
  • Deliberate handling of rows that fail to match, including whether the question needs an inner join or a left join with the non-matches kept and counted
  • Whether NULLs are treated on purpose, given that a NULL compares equal to nothing and that COUNT of a column skips it
  • Reaching a defensible answer inside the window instead of a refined one after it

How to prepare

  • Take a two-table schema, write a join that fans out on purpose, then fix it by collapsing the many-side to one row per key before joining. Repeat until the fix is reflex rather than recall.
  • Write a funnel as one query and print the distinct user count at each stage, then confirm each stage is a subset of the one above it rather than assuming it
  • Do a few timed runs in a plain text box with no autocomplete and no formatter, since assessment editors often have neither

Case Study

Underneath the business framing, this round is usually asking whether you can turn a fuzzy goal into a quantity that could be computed from data such a business would plausibly hold. That means a metric with a stated numerator, denominator, eligibility rule and time window, plus an honest account of the conditions under which it would mislead you. Answers come apart when a candidate names a familiar metric and never defines it, because every follow-up then lands on an ambiguity that was left open and the candidate has to invent the definition under pressure.

What to demonstrate

  • Whether a named metric arrives with its denominator, eligibility rule and window attached rather than assumed
  • Whether the measure follows from the mechanism you proposed, or is a recognisable metric retrofitted to it afterwards
  • Whether you name a guardrail that would reveal the gain came from somewhere you did not want it to come from
  • Whether you can say what data the plan requires and what you would settle for if that logging were never implemented

How to prepare

  • Take five metrics you reach for by reflex and write each as one sentence containing numerator, denominator, eligibility rule and time window. The ones you cannot finish are the ones that will fail under follow-up.
  • For a product you use daily, write the measurement plan you would propose for a change to it: primary metric, one guardrail, the unit of analysis, and the table the numbers would come from.
  • Practise the substitution question. For three metrics you like, write what you would measure instead if the event you depend on were not being logged.

Leadership Discussion

An added round often puts you in front of someone outside the core hiring team: a partner engineer, a product owner, a domain expert, sometimes a more senior manager. The question they are really asking is not whether you can do the work but whether they would trust a number that came from you. That changes what a good answer looks like. Lead with what the decision cost and what it changed, keep the method available but not central, and be plain about the limits of your evidence. Overstating a result is the fastest way to lose this round.

What to demonstrate

  • Whether you can explain a technical choice to someone who will never read your code, without either flattening it into nothing or hiding inside jargon
  • Honesty about evidence strength: what the analysis establishes, what it only suggests, and what it cannot say at all
  • How you take disagreement, specifically whether you update on a good objection, hold your position with reasons, or fold on contact

How to prepare

  • Write the two-sentence version of your most technical project for a non-specialist, then check that neither sentence needs a method name to make sense.
  • For one result you are proud of, write the strongest objection someone could raise and a response that concedes the part of it that is correct.
  • Prepare one decision that turned out to be wrong: how you found out, what it cost, and what you changed afterwards. A senior cross-functional interviewer asks for this more often than a technical one does.

Where candidates lose points

Comparing cohort retention curves of different maturities, or building the curve from users who are still present

A cohort four weeks old has no week-8 value, so an average taken across cohorts silently drops young cohorts from the later columns and keeps them in the earlier ones. The curve then bends upward at the tail, and the reading that 'retention is improving over time' is an artefact of which cohorts survived to be measured. The same error appears in the denominator when retention is computed over users active in the current period rather than over the full original cohort, which conditions on survival and guarantees a flattering number. The fix is a triangle: fix the cohort at signup, bound every window on both sides, and only compare cells where every cohort has had the full elapsed time, publishing the rest as blank rather than as a partial average.

Slicing a flat experiment until a segment reaches significance

Testing one metric across twenty segments at a nominal 5% level produces a significant result about two thirds of the time when nothing is happening anywhere, and the segment that surfaces is by construction the one with the most favourable noise. The reported effect in that slice is then badly overstated, because selection on significance conditions the estimate on being large. What makes it dangerous rather than merely wrong is that a post-hoc segment always has a plausible story attached, so it survives the meeting. The controls are declaring the small number of segments of interest before launch, correcting across the ones tested, and treating anything discovered afterwards as a hypothesis that needs its own adequately-powered test rather than a finding.

Sizing estimates built on unnamed, unrevisable assumptions

Write each assumption as a named number you can change, then show the arithmetic so the interviewer can challenge one input instead of the whole answer. Finish by saying which assumption the result is most sensitive to, which matters more than the point estimate.

Treating a non-significant result as proof of no effect

Say whether the confidence interval excludes the effect sizes you would have cared about. If it does not, the honest reading is that the test was underpowered, so report the minimum detectable effect the design could have found and what sample size would resolve it.

Questions & practice

How do you determine if a result is statistically significant?

Medium · statistics and probability

Approach

  1. Translate the result into the decision it informs, in one plain sentence.
  2. Sanity-check the answer against a simple bound or a simulated case.
  3. Say what the estimate is of, and over what population it generalises.

Follow-up

  • What sample size would you need to detect an effect half this size?
  • Which assumption here is most likely to be violated in practice?

How would you handle missing data or outliers in a large dataset?

Medium · statistics and probability

Approach

  1. Say what the estimate is of, and over what population it generalises.
  2. Quantify uncertainty explicitly rather than reporting a point estimate alone.
  3. Write down the assumption the method needs before you use the method.

Follow-up

  • What sample size would you need to detect an effect half this size?
  • Which assumption here is most likely to be violated in practice?

Explain the difference between frequentist and Bayesian inference.

Medium · statistics and probability

Approach

  1. Quantify uncertainty explicitly rather than reporting a point estimate alone.
  2. Write down the assumption the method needs before you use the method.
  3. Say what the estimate is of, and over what population it generalises.

Follow-up

  • How would you explain this result to someone who does not know statistics?
  • What sample size would you need to detect an effect half this size?

What are the common pitfalls when implementing gradient descent?

Medium · machine learning and modelling

Approach

  1. Check what information would not exist at prediction time, and exclude it.
  2. Pick an evaluation metric that matches the cost of each error type, not a default.
  3. Say how the offline result would be validated online before it is trusted.

Follow-up

  • How would you choose the decision threshold, and who owns that choice?
  • Where could label leakage enter this setup?

How would you optimize a model that is currently underperforming in production?

Medium · machine learning and modelling

Approach

  1. Pick an evaluation metric that matches the cost of each error type, not a default.
  2. Say how the offline result would be validated online before it is trusted.
  3. Frame the prediction: the label, the moment of prediction, and the action it triggers.

Follow-up

  • What would you monitor after launch to know the model is still valid?
  • How would you choose the decision threshold, and who owns that choice?

Simulate the false positive cost of repeated peeking

Medium · simulation · peeking · type i error

Quantify the cost of peeking. Simulate a two-arm experiment with no true effect: each arm accumulates Bernoulli conversions at a base rate of 0.10 up to 40,000 units per arm. Run a two-sided two-proportion z-test at alpha 0.05 at ten equally spaced interim points, and record whether the test ever crossed. Report the false positive rate over at least 10,000 replications, alongside the rate for a single look at the final sample only. Use a fixed seed and report a Monte Carlo standard error on both figures.

Approach

  1. Generate each replication as two cumulative sums of Bernoulli draws, then read the interim points off the cumulative arrays. Regenerating data at each look would make the looks independent, which destroys exactly the dependence the exercise is about: later looks share data with earlier ones.
  2. Use the pooled-variance two-proportion z: p_pool = (x1+x2)/(n1+n2), z = (p1-p2) / sqrt(p_pool*(1-p_pool)*(1/n1 + 1/n2)), reject when |z| > 1.96. State that the normal approximation is fine here because the smallest look has roughly 400 expected conversions per arm.
  3. Vectorise across replications rather than looping: draw a (reps, n) array of uniforms, threshold at 0.10, cumsum along axis 1 and slice the ten look indices. A per-replication loop at 10,000 by 40,000 is unnecessarily slow.
  4. Record the any-cross indicator per replication, take the mean, and compute the Monte Carlo standard error as sqrt(p*(1-p)/reps) so the reported figure comes with its own precision.
  5. Report the single-look rate in the same run as a control. If it does not land near 0.05, the bug is in the test statistic and not in the peeking argument.

Worked solution (30 min)

  1. rng = np.random.default_rng(seed); for memory, batch the replications in chunks and accumulate the any-cross count across chunks.
  2. Per chunk: draw (chunk, 40000) uniforms per arm, x = (u < 0.10).cumsum(axis=1), slice columns at indices 3999, 7999, ..., 39999.
  3. Compute the ten z statistics vectorised over the chunk, take crossed = (np.abs(z) > 1.96).any(axis=1).
  4. Aggregate: peek_rate = total_crossed / reps; single_rate = mean of |z_final| > 1.96; mc_se = sqrt(p*(1-p)/reps) for each.

Expected result: The single-look rate lands at 0.05 within about 0.005 at 10,000 replications. The ten-look rate lands near 0.19, which with 10,000 replications has a Monte Carlo standard error of about 0.004, so anything in roughly 0.18 to 0.20 is consistent and anything near 0.40 indicates independent redraws.

Verify it yourself

  • The single-look control recovers 0.05 within two Monte Carlo standard errors; if it does not, the z statistic is wrong and the headline number is meaningless.
  • The crossing rate is monotone in the number of looks: 1 look near 0.05, 2 near 0.08, 5 near 0.14, 10 near 0.19.
  • Halving the base rate to 0.05 leaves the peeking rate essentially unchanged, since the result is about the test's random walk and not about the conversion level.
  • Re-running with the same seed reproduces the figure exactly.

Follow-up

  • Re-run with 40 looks instead of 10. Why does the curve flatten rather than continue rising linearly?
  • Among the replications that crossed, what is the mean observed lift, and why is it not zero?
  • What does an O'Brien-Fleming boundary or an always-valid confidence sequence change about this simulation, and what does each cost in power?

Weekly visit-to-signup conversion split by acquisition channel

Easy · funnel · conversion · aggregation

From fct_session (session_id, visitor_id, started_at_utc, referrer_channel, is_bot_flagged, consent_state) and fct_event (visitor_id, occurred_at_utc, event_name), compute visit-to-signup conversion for one ISO week, split by channel. session_id is the unique key of fct_session. Denominator: distinct visitor_id with a session starting in the week, is_bot_flagged = FALSE and consent_state <> 'denied'. Numerator: those visitors with a 'signup_completed' event in the same week. Label each visitor with the referrer_channel of their first session in the window. Return channel, visitors, signups and rate, plus one all-channel total row.

Approach

  1. Build a visitor spine that is one row per visitor: filter sessions to the week, drop is_bot_flagged and consent_state = 'denied', then take the first session per visitor with ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY visitor_id ORDER BY started_at_utc, session_id) = 1 to carry the channel label. Collapsing to one row here is what makes the channel buckets mutually exclusive and the totals additive.
  2. session_id is the unique key, so that ordering is total and the label is reproducible. If the table carried no unique key you would have to write an explicit tie rule instead, because two sessions on different channels at the identical timestamp would otherwise label the visitor differently between runs.
  3. Attach the outcome as a semi-join (EXISTS on a signup_completed event for that visitor inside the same week) rather than a join to the event table, so a visitor who fires the event twice does not count twice and inflate the numerator past the denominator.
  4. Aggregate with COUNT() as visitors and COUNT() FILTER (WHERE signed_up) as signups, and compute the rate as signups::numeric / NULLIF(visitors, 0) so an empty channel returns NULL rather than a division error.
  5. Produce the total with GROUP BY GROUPING SETS ((channel), ()), which re-sums numerator and denominator for the total row. Averaging the channel rates gives a different and wrong number whenever channel volumes differ, which they always do.
  6. Verify the spine before trusting the output: COUNT(*) must equal COUNT(DISTINCT visitor_id), and the per-channel visitor counts must sum to the total row.

Worked solution (20 min)

  1. Write the filtered session CTE and check its row count against an unfiltered count, so you know how much volume the bot and consent filters removed.
  2. Add the ROW_NUMBER first-session pick and assert one row per visitor.
  3. Add the EXISTS outcome flag and aggregate with FILTER.
  4. Add GROUPING SETS for the total and format the rate to four decimal places.
  5. Spot-check one channel by hand: pull its visitor list, count signups directly, compare.

Expected result: One row per referrer_channel plus a total row, with visitors, signups and a decimal rate. Channels with zero signups appear with rate 0, not missing. The total rate lies strictly between the minimum and maximum channel rate unless one channel holds all the volume.

Verify it yourself

  • Per-channel visitor counts sum exactly to the total row's visitor count.
  • COUNT(*) equals COUNT(DISTINCT visitor_id) on the spine CTE.
  • Replacing the EXISTS with a plain inner join changes the signup count only if duplicate signup_completed events exist; if it does change, say by how much.
  • Every rate is between 0 and 1.
  • Re-running the first-session pick with session_id removed from the ORDER BY returns the same labels; if it does not, visitors hold same-timestamp sessions on different channels and the tie rule is doing real work.

Follow-up

  • The denominator is distinct visitors. If a browser release shortens cookie lifetime, what happens to this rate, and how would you tell that apart from a genuine drop?
  • A visitor's first session is direct and their signup session is paid search. Your label says direct. When is that the wrong answer for the decision being made?
  • How do you roll four weeks into a month, and why is averaging the four weekly rates wrong?

Read an experiment from first exposure, not assignment

Hard · experiments · window-functions · srm

fct_experiment_exposure holds experiment_id, unit_type, unit_id, variant, user_id, assigned_at_utc, first_exposed_at_utc, is_in_analysis_population and planned_end_utc. fct_event holds user_id, occurred_at_utc, is_core_action, and carries events up to a known data cut, :data_cut_utc. For one experiment randomised on unit_type = 'user', return per variant: exposed units, units with at least one core action in the seven days after that unit's own first exposure, the rate, and the variant share of exposed units. Only units whose seven-day window has fully elapsed as of the data cut belong in the readout. Units appearing under more than one variant are excluded from both arms and counted separately.

Approach

  1. Run the contamination pass as an aggregate, not a window: SELECT unit_id FROM fct_experiment_exposure WHERE experiment_id = :exp GROUP BY unit_id HAVING COUNT(DISTINCT variant) > 1, then anti-join it away. PostgreSQL rejects COUNT(DISTINCT variant) OVER (PARTITION BY unit_id) outright, since DISTINCT is not implemented for window functions; if you want the test inline, MIN(variant) OVER (PARTITION BY unit_id) <> MAX(variant) OVER (PARTITION BY unit_id) is the equivalent that does run.
  2. Do not resolve contamination by keeping the earliest variant. A unit that saw both arms carries treatment from both, so assigning it to either one biases that arm.
  3. Define the population as is_in_analysis_population = TRUE AND unit_type = 'user' AND first_exposed_at_utc < planned_end_utc AND first_exposed_at_utc + interval '7 days' <= :data_cut_utc. The horizon filter is what makes the readout reproducible next week instead of drifting with every re-run; the data-cut filter is the one that actually buys seven days of follow-up, since a unit exposed an hour before the horizon otherwise contributes an hour of observation to a seven-day rate.
  4. Measure the outcome on a per-unit relative window: LEFT JOIN fct_event on user_id with is_core_action = TRUE and occurred_at_utc in [first_exposed_at_utc, first_exposed_at_utc + interval '7 days'). LEFT JOIN so units with no outcome stay in the denominator at zero rather than being deleted by an inner join.
  5. Check the sample ratio before reading the effect: variant share of exposed units against the intended split, tested as a binomial. Run it on the truncated population as well as on the full exposed set, because if one arm exposes later on average the data-cut filter removes more of that arm and can manufacture a ratio mismatch the randomisation did not have. A mismatch on the full set means the exposure data is not a valid randomisation and invalidates the readout rather than being a footnote under it.
  6. Report the per-variant rate, the absolute difference, and the fact that the variance unit is unit_id. That is straightforward here only because the grain is already one row per user; a per-session outcome under user randomisation would need a delta-method or bootstrap standard error instead.

Follow-up

  • Some units were assigned days before they were exposed. What does analysing the assigned set instead do to the estimated effect, and in which direction?
  • The split is 51/49 on 400,000 exposed units. Do you read the result?
  • The treatment arm exposes on average two days later than control. What does that do to a fixed calendar outcome window, and which arm does it favour?

How would you design a metric to measure market penetration for a specific service?

Medium · product sense and metrics

Approach

  1. Name one primary metric, then the guardrail that stops it being gamed.
  2. Fix the population and the time window before naming any metric.
  3. Decompose the metric into the rates that drive it, and say which one you would check first.

Follow-up

  • Which segment would you cut first, and what would that rule out?
  • How would you detect that the metric is being gamed rather than genuinely improving?

Walk me through how you would approach a project to segment client behavior.

Medium · product sense and metrics

Approach

  1. Fix the population and the time window before naming any metric.
  2. State what result would change your recommendation, so the answer is falsifiable.
  3. Restate the decision this analysis has to support, and who acts on the answer.

Follow-up

  • What would you do if the primary metric and the guardrail moved in opposite directions?
  • Which segment would you cut first, and what would that rule out?

If a client’s data shows a sudden anomaly, how do you investigate the root cause?

Medium · product sense and metrics

Approach

  1. Decompose the metric into the rates that drive it, and say which one you would check first.
  2. Name one primary metric, then the guardrail that stops it being gamed.
  3. Restate the decision this analysis has to support, and who acts on the answer.

Follow-up

  • How would you detect that the metric is being gamed rather than genuinely improving?
  • Which segment would you cut first, and what would that rule out?

Choose one success number for a homepage redesign

Easy · conversion · guardrails · mix effects

A homepage redesign is ready to test. Marketing wants visit-to-signup conversion as the single success metric: distinct fct_session.visitor_id with a 'signup_completed' event in fct_event, over distinct visitor_id with a session started in the window where is_bot_flagged = FALSE and consent_state <> 'denied'. Sessions carry referrer_channel and device_type. Argue for or against that metric, name what you would decide on instead, and give the one guardrail you would refuse to ship without. Deliverable: the metric, the guardrail, and the failure mode in writing.

Approach

  1. List everything that moves this rate without the page changing: referrer_channel mix, device_type mix, cookie lifetime and bot-rule changes, then pre-register the segments you will decompose on so the decomposition is not chosen after seeing the result.
  2. Argue that signup is an intermediate outcome the homepage can inflate by over-promising, and propose activated signups per 1,000 eligible visitors — the same numerator further restricted to users clearing the seven-day activation bar — as the number the decision actually rests on.
  3. Explain the consent exclusion rather than copying it: a 'denied' session can never be joined forward to a user, so leaving it in the denominator puts visitors there who have no path into the numerator and depresses the level permanently.
  4. Separate what the metric can and cannot be used for: inside a randomised comparison over one window it is fine, but as a trend line across a platform privacy change it will step down because visitor_id resets more often, with no behaviour change behind it.
  5. State the trade you would accept in advance: a smaller conversion gain with flat activation beats a larger conversion gain with activation down, and write the threshold before the readout.

Worked solution (15 min)

  1. Restate the proposed metric and list every input that can move it with the page unchanged.
  2. Compute the mix-held-fixed counterfactual: reweight this period's per-segment rates by last period's segment volumes, and report the difference against the pooled rate as the mix effect.
  3. Define the decision metric: activated signups per 1,000 eligible visitors, with the seven-day activation predicate spelled out.
  4. Write the guardrail and the explicit trade-off sentence you would put in the ship decision.
  5. Record the denominator exclusions with the reason for each, not just the predicate.

Expected result: Conversion kept as a diagnostic, activated signups per 1,000 visitors named as the decision metric, a specified mix decomposition, and one guardrail carrying a written trade-off.

Verify it yourself

  • Weekly rates rolled up by re-summing numerator and denominator differ from the average of the weekly rates whenever weekly traffic is uneven. If the two agree, a rate-of-rates has been computed somewhere.
  • Per-segment numerators must sum to the pooled numerator. If they do not, a visitor is appearing in two segments and the segmentation is not a partition.
  • Activation can only be read eight days after the last signup in the window, so the earliest honest decision date is eight days after the test stops.

Follow-up

  • The redesign wins overall but the entire gain sits in paid social. What do you do, and what would change your mind?
  • How do you roll four weekly conversion rates up to a month, and why does the obvious way give a different answer?
  • Where does holding the segment mix fixed stop working as a correction?

Pooled signup conversion fell while every segment rose

Medium · mix-shift · simpsons-paradox · decomposition

Weekly visit-to-signup conversion, counted on distinct fct_session.visitor_id with is_bot_flagged = TRUE and consent_state = 'denied' sessions excluded, fell from 4.4% to 3.9% week over week. Split by device_type and referrer_channel, all twelve cells are flat or up. A paid_social campaign launched on Monday. Using fct_session and fct_event, quantify how much of the 0.5-point fall is mix and how much is within-segment rate, then state what you would tell the growth lead.

Approach

  1. Write the pooled rate explicitly as the sum over segments of weight times segment rate, and materialise both weeks' weights and rates into one table. Until that table exists there is nothing to decompose, only opinions.
  2. Compute three quantities and report all three: the rate effect holding the prior week's weights fixed, the mix effect holding the prior week's rates fixed, and the interaction residual. Reporting only the first two hides a term that can be material when both weights and rates move a lot.
  3. Rank segments by their individual mix contribution, computed as the change in that segment's weight multiplied by its prior-period rate. This is what lets you say one cell caused the move rather than gesturing at the campaign.
  4. Verify the new traffic is human and countable before accepting the mix story: check is_bot_flagged coverage on the new channel, the distribution of duration_seconds and event_count for its sessions, and whether its consent_state profile differs from the rest.
  5. Deliver the conclusion as a definition change rather than a diagnosis: a pooled rate over a mix that moves is not comparable week over week, so the recurring report should carry per-channel rates plus absolute signups, with the pooled figure demoted or dropped.

Follow-up

  • Paid social converts at roughly a quarter of organic but absolute signups rose. Is the campaign working, and what would you need to answer that properly?
  • Would you reach the same conclusion if the campaign had moved the mix by two points instead of sixteen? Where is your threshold and why?
  • How would you present this to someone who has been watching the pooled number in a weekly meeting for a year?

Suggested practice checklist

Roughly 90 minutes a night on weekdays with one longer weekend block. The plan deliberately cuts scope rather than compressing everything, on the assumption that finishing one thing a night beats half-starting four.

Day 1 — Fix the scope and set a baseline

  • Read the role description and write the three things the loop will almost certainly test, then write an explicit not-doing list for everything else and keep it visible all week.
  • Take one 20-minute SQL prompt and one 10-minute metric question cold, and write the single sentence that says what blocked each attempt, since that sentence is what decides which two topics get the most evenings.
  • Set the week's one rule: one problem finished to completion every night, including the night you only have 40 minutes.

Deliverable: A one-page scope with an explicit not-doing list and two cold attempts, each carrying one sentence on what blocked it.

Day 2 — One query pattern, written three times

  • Choose the single pattern most likely to appear (a cohort retention grid, or a funnel counted by user) and write it three times from a blank file rather than editing the previous attempt.
  • On the third attempt, write the grain of every CTE as a comment before writing its body.
  • Stop at 90 minutes even if the third version is imperfect, and write the one thing you would fix with another hour.

Deliverable: Three independent versions of the same query plus a note on what changed between them.

Day 3 — Only the statistics you will be asked to defend

  • Write, in under 200 words, how you would decide whether a difference between two groups is real: the test, its assumptions, and what you would switch to when an assumption fails.
  • Compute a 95 percent confidence interval for a difference in proportions by hand on realistic numbers, then write in one sentence what changes if the two samples are paired rather than independent.
  • Write your answer to "what does a p-value mean", check it against a definition, and delete the version that describes it as the probability the hypothesis is true.

Deliverable: A 200-word written answer and one hand-computed interval you can reproduce under pressure.

Day 4 — One case, and the assumptions holding it up

  • Answer one product case aloud in 20 minutes with a recording running, then listen back with a pen and mark every claim you asserted without saying what it rested on: an assumed user behaviour, an assumed data source, an assumed baseline rate, an assumed grain.
  • Pick the three assumptions the recommendation actually depends on, write how you would check each one against data, and say which one being wrong would flip the recommendation rather than merely weaken it.
  • Write the four-step structure you used onto a card small enough to hold in working memory when you are nervous.

Deliverable: One recording, three load-bearing assumptions each with a written check, and a four-step structure card.

Day 5 — Your own work, timed

  • Write a 90-second version and a four-minute version of your main project, and time both out loud rather than reading them.
  • Prepare answers to the two follow-ups that always come: what you would do differently, and how you knew it worked.
  • Put one number in the first sentence and be able to say exactly where that number came from and what it excludes.

Deliverable: Two timed narratives with one defensible number in the opening line.

Day 6 — The one full rehearsal, in a longer weekend block

  • Run a 60-minute mock covering query work, a case and a behavioural question in a single sitting with no breaks, because sustained attention is the thing evenings have not trained.
  • Immediately afterwards, and before hearing any feedback, write the three moments you lost the thread.
  • Spend the rest of the block only on those three moments, and on nothing you merely feel shaky about.

Deliverable: Mock notes naming three failure moments with a specific fix written under each.

Day 7 — Taper

  • Write the 20-minute warm-up you will actually do on the morning of the interview: one query you can already write from a blank file, one metric you can define out loud, and nothing you have never seen before.
  • Re-read only your own notes from this week, and open no new material.
  • Write down the logistics: the tool you will be asked to work in, whether lookups are allowed, and the sentence you will use when you do not know something.

Deliverable: A one-page card holding the case structure, the project numbers, and the logistics.

What the behavioural round is actually scoring

Interviewers here are not checking whether you can describe a project. They want the decision you made, why you made it under the information you had, and what changed afterwards that someone else could measure. A story that ends at 'I built a model' has no ending. Say what the model caused, or what you stopped doing because of it.

How do you handle bias-variance trade-offs in your model development?

Medium · behavioural and stakeholder questions

Approach

  1. Pick a story where you drove the decision, not one where you observed it.
  2. Quantify the outcome, including what you would not claim credit for.
  3. Name the disagreement or constraint, and how you resolved it with evidence.

Follow-up

  • How did you know the outcome was caused by your change?
  • What did you decide not to do, and why?

Disagree with a product manager's roadmap claim using data

Medium · causal inference · selection bias · stakeholder

A product manager proposes building a feature on the argument that accounts connecting an integration in week one retain three times better at week four. The figure is correctly computed from dim_user and fct_event, and it has already been shown to leadership. You have one scheduled 1:1 before the roadmap locks. Deliver the specific analysis you would run to test whether the relationship is causal, the result that would change your own mind, and how you open the conversation so that the PM is not put in the position of defending the number in public.

Approach

  1. Recognise what is being probed: whether you can separate a number being right from an inference being wrong, and do it without costing the PM face. The generic answer recites that correlation is not causation; the strong one names the specific confound and proposes the cheapest design that could distinguish the explanations.
  2. State the alternative concretely. Accounts that connect an integration in week one are accounts that already have a workflow and a technical owner, so week-one intent plausibly drives both the connection and week-four retention. The selection is on intent, which no amount of post-hoc adjustment observes.
  3. Order the discriminating analyses by cost. First, condition on pre-connection activity by comparing retention within strata of week-one core-action count, which removes the crude version of the confound but not unobserved intent. Second, look for variation in integration availability that was unrelated to intent, such as a staggered release or an outage window. Third, an encouragement design that randomises a prompt to connect and reads the intent-to-treat effect on week-four retention, which is the only version that identifies an effect.
  4. Run the timing check, because it is nearly free and it is the most persuasive single piece of evidence. If the retention advantage among connectors is already visible before any of them connected, the causal story is largely finished.
  5. Pre-commit to what would change your mind and say it before you show anything: if the gap survives stratification and the encouragement arm moves week-four retention at all, the feature has a case and you will say so.
  6. Open the 1:1 by agreeing with the true part, that the correlation is real and worth chasing, then ask what effect size the roadmap plan assumes. That makes the size of the claim the topic instead of its authorship.

Follow-up

  • The encouragement test needs six weeks and the roadmap locks in two. What do you recommend in the interim?
  • Stratifying on week-one activity closes half the gap. What do you conclude, and what do you still not know?
  • How would you word this in the roadmap document so the PM's original number is reframed rather than deleted?

Explain a wide interval to a non-technical executive

Medium · communication · uncertainty · pricing

A pricing change is under consideration. Your best estimate of its effect on trial-to-paid conversion is a 1.8pp drop, with a 95% interval from a 4.6pp drop to a 1.0pp rise, read from a geo holdout rather than a randomised test. An executive preparing a board slide asks you for 'the number'. You have ninety seconds and one slide, and the words confidence interval, p-value and significance are not usable with this audience. Deliver the slide headline, the single supporting line, and what you say aloud.

Approach

  1. Recognise what is being probed: whether you can carry uncertainty into a decision instead of either hiding it or hiding behind it. The generic answer promises to explain the interval in plain English; the strong one replaces the question 'what is the number' with 'across this range, where does the decision change'.
  2. Find the threshold before you draft anything. Ask what the pricing case assumes, then compute the conversion drop at which the higher price stops adding revenue: price uplift on the conversions kept against the revenue lost from conversions forgone. That single figure is what makes the range legible.
  3. Restate the estimate and both bounds in the unit the audience already reasons in. Convert percentage points into monthly first-paid conversions at current trial volume, then into mrr_cents_constant_fx, so the slide reads as money per month rather than as statistics.
  4. Place the range against the break-even and say which part of it sits on each side. If most of the range clears the threshold, that is a recommendation to proceed with a monitoring plan; if the range straddles it, that is a recommendation to narrow the range first.
  5. Name what would narrow it and what that costs in weeks, then give one recommendation with an explicit condition for revisiting it. Uncertainty stated without a next step is read as indecision and the midpoint gets used anyway.

Follow-up

  • The executive says to give the midpoint and they will manage the risk. What do you do?
  • How does the slide change if the interval were a 4.6pp to 0.2pp drop, with no positive outcomes in range?
  • Why is a geo holdout the credible read here rather than the attributed channel numbers you already have?