Interview guides · Argo Group

Argo Group Data Scientist Interview Questions & Guide 2026

Modeling drills for a Argo Group data scientist interview: baselines, regression interpretation, class imbalance, model defense.

The 60-second brief

The Data Scientist role at Argo Group is pivotal in leveraging data to drive insights and strategic decisions within the organization. As a Senior Data Scientist, you will engage in a variety of projects that require a blend of analytical acumen, statistical expertise, and business understanding. Your work directly impacts product development, risk assessment, and customer engagement, allowing the company to enhance its offerings and operational efficiency.

In modelling rounds the live question is usually why this model class for this problem, and how you would know six weeks after launch that it is still working. Deriving gradients by hand is rarely what is being probed.

Focus areas

Pick a randomisation unit that respects interference
Size an experiment before anyone launches it
Separate novelty effects from durable behaviour change

Overview

In this role, you will tackle complex datasets that inform critical business processes, applying advanced analytical techniques to generate predictive models and data-driven solutions. You will collaborate with cross-functional teams, including operations, product management, and IT, to ensure that data initiatives align with the company's strategic goals. This position presents an opportunity to influence the direction of projects that can significantly improve customer experiences and optimize internal operations, making it both rewarding and crucial to the overall success of Argo Group.

The Argo Group interview process

Argo Group candidates report 3 rounds · ≈ 3-5 weeks. The stages below are what candidates describe, not a published process.

Initial Screening

Data Scientist covers at least four different jobs: experimentation, product analytics, causal work on observational data, and applied modelling that ships into a system. A screening call is the cheapest place to find out which of them is being hired for, and doing that diagnosis openly reads as senior rather than fussy. Ask what the last few pieces of work on the team actually were, and roughly how a week splits between querying, modelling and stakeholder time. Then say which parts of that you have done and which you have not. Claiming the whole range is the fastest way to be caught one round later.

What to demonstrate

Whether you can distinguish the flavours of the role and locate your own experience inside one of them honestly
Whether you name what you have not done instead of stretching to cover every line of the posting
Whether your hard constraints (notice period, location, work authorisation, level) surface now rather than at offer stage

How to prepare

Map the last two years of your time into rough percentages across query writing, experiment design, modelling and stakeholder work, so a question about scope has a real answer
Mark every responsibility in the posting as done, adjacent or new, and prepare one sentence for each adjacent item naming the closest thing you have actually built
Decide which logistics are non-negotiable before the call so you can state them in one sentence rather than negotiating live

Technical Interviews

Before anything else, this round is a reading test. You are given a small schema and a question phrased in business language, and most of the difficulty sits in the gap between them. Who counts as an active user, does a refunded order still count as an order, is that date column an event time or a load time. Weak answers start typing immediately and compute something precise about the wrong population. Strong ones pin the definition in one sentence, name the column that encodes it, then write the query. On a timed assessment with nobody to tell, write the definition in a comment anyway.

What to demonstrate

Whether an ambiguous term becomes a specific column and filter before any computation happens
Whether you read the schema for keys and cardinality rather than only for column names
Whether the result answers the question at the grain it was asked at, per user or per session or per day

How to prepare

Take three metrics you already use and write down the exact filter and exact grain behind each, then practise stating one of them in a single sentence out loud
On a schema you have never seen, spend the first minute writing what one row of each table means and which key it is unique on, then predict which joins can duplicate rows
Rehearse a version where the definition changes halfway through, and edit the query you have instead of starting over

Behavioral Interviews

This round decides whether you owned a decision or watched one happen nearby. Interviewers for data roles listen for the point where the analysis stopped being a report and started changing what someone did, so build each story around that hinge: what was going to happen by default, what you found, and what happened instead. The most common weakness is a story that ends at delivery. If you can name the decision your work changed and the number that moved because of it, most follow-ups become easy.

What to demonstrate

Whether the decision was yours to influence, or whether you are narrating a team outcome in the first person
The counterfactual: what would have been done without your analysis, and why that default was worse
How far your involvement ran past the handoff, and whether you checked that the change did what you predicted

How to prepare

Pick three projects and write one sentence for each naming the decision-maker, the choice in front of them, and what they chose after seeing your work. If you cannot name a person and a choice, the story is not ready for this round.
Reconstruct the baseline for your strongest project from the original query or dashboard rather than memory, so the before-number survives a follow-up asking where it came from.
Prepare an honest version of a project where your recommendation was overruled, including what you did with the analysis afterwards.

Where candidates lose points

Reading a pooled rate that moved because the mix moved, not because any behaviour changed

A pooled conversion rate is a weighted average, and a shift in the weights can move it in the opposite direction to every one of its parts. A paid campaign that brings low-converting traffic drops overall signup conversion even if desktop, mobile web and app conversion each rose that week, which is Simpson's paradox and it is the single most common cause of an inexplicable dashboard move. The discipline is to decompose before explaining: recompute the rate holding last period's segment weights fixed, and compare that counterfactual to the actual, so the mix effect and the rate effect are separated numerically rather than argued about. Segment on the dimensions that actually reweight, which in this domain are almost always device_type, referrer_channel, country and new versus returning.

Counting on an identity key that changes underneath the metric

visitor_id is per browser and per device, and it resets on cookie clearance, private browsing and platform privacy changes, so the distinct-visitor count drifts upward for reasons unrelated to reach. Any rate with visitors in the denominator therefore decays over time even when behaviour is constant, and any rate with visitors in the numerator inflates. The stitching at signup makes it worse in both directions: a user who signed up on mobile and returns on desktop is two visitors and one user, while a shared device is one visitor and several users. Decide which key each metric is counted on, write it into the definition, and when comparing a period before and after a platform privacy change, expect a level shift in every visitor-keyed metric and do not attribute it to the product.

Interpreting a change before checking data quality and logging

Spend the first pass on row volume by day, null rates, duplicate keys, and whether the step change lands on a release or tracking-migration date. A discontinuity that coincides with a deploy is an instrumentation hypothesis before it is a behavioural one.

Naming a model class before naming the deployment constraints

Set out the latency budget, the label delay, the retraining cadence, the interpretability requirement and the number of labelled examples, then pick the model that fits them. A boosted-tree answer to a problem where each decision must be explained to the affected user is a well-executed answer to the wrong question.

Questions & practice

What statistical techniques do you prefer for hypothesis testing, and why?

Medium · statistics and probability

Approach

Translate the result into the decision it informs, in one plain sentence.
Quantify uncertainty explicitly rather than reporting a point estimate alone.
Say what the estimate is of, and over what population it generalises.

Follow-up

How would you explain this result to someone who does not know statistics?
What sample size would you need to detect an effect half this size?

Write a function to compute the Pearson correlation coefficient between two arrays.

Medium · statistics and probability

Approach

Sanity-check the answer against a simple bound or a simulated case.
Translate the result into the decision it informs, in one plain sentence.
Say what the estimate is of, and over what population it generalises.

Follow-up

How would you explain this result to someone who does not know statistics?
What sample size would you need to detect an effect half this size?

How would you implement a decision tree from scratch?

Medium · machine learning and modelling

Approach

Set a baseline first, so any model has something honest to beat.
Check what information would not exist at prediction time, and exclude it.
Say how the offline result would be validated online before it is trusted.

Follow-up

How would you choose the decision threshold, and who owns that choice?
Where could label leakage enter this setup?

Describe a project where you applied machine learning. What challenges did you face, and how did you overcome them?

Medium · machine learning and modelling

Approach

Check what information would not exist at prediction time, and exclude it.
Pick an evaluation metric that matches the cost of each error type, not a default.
Say how the offline result would be validated online before it is trusted.

Follow-up

How would you choose the decision threshold, and who owns that choice?
Where could label leakage enter this setup?

Simulate the false positive cost of repeated peeking

Medium · simulation · peeking · type i error

Quantify the cost of peeking. Simulate a two-arm experiment with no true effect: each arm accumulates Bernoulli conversions at a base rate of 0.10 up to 40,000 units per arm. Run a two-sided two-proportion z-test at alpha 0.05 at ten equally spaced interim points, and record whether the test ever crossed. Report the false positive rate over at least 10,000 replications, alongside the rate for a single look at the final sample only. Use a fixed seed and report a Monte Carlo standard error on both figures.

Approach

Generate each replication as two cumulative sums of Bernoulli draws, then read the interim points off the cumulative arrays. Regenerating data at each look would make the looks independent, which destroys exactly the dependence the exercise is about: later looks share data with earlier ones.
Use the pooled-variance two-proportion z: p_pool = (x1+x2)/(n1+n2), z = (p1-p2) / sqrt(p_pool*(1-p_pool)*(1/n1 + 1/n2)), reject when |z| > 1.96. State that the normal approximation is fine here because the smallest look has roughly 400 expected conversions per arm.
Vectorise across replications rather than looping: draw a (reps, n) array of uniforms, threshold at 0.10, cumsum along axis 1 and slice the ten look indices. A per-replication loop at 10,000 by 40,000 is unnecessarily slow.
Record the any-cross indicator per replication, take the mean, and compute the Monte Carlo standard error as sqrt(p*(1-p)/reps) so the reported figure comes with its own precision.
Report the single-look rate in the same run as a control. If it does not land near 0.05, the bug is in the test statistic and not in the peeking argument.

Worked solution (30 min)

rng = np.random.default_rng(seed); for memory, batch the replications in chunks and accumulate the any-cross count across chunks.
Per chunk: draw (chunk, 40000) uniforms per arm, x = (u < 0.10).cumsum(axis=1), slice columns at indices 3999, 7999, ..., 39999.
Compute the ten z statistics vectorised over the chunk, take crossed = (np.abs(z) > 1.96).any(axis=1).
Aggregate: peek_rate = total_crossed / reps; single_rate = mean of |z_final| > 1.96; mc_se = sqrt(p*(1-p)/reps) for each.

Expected result: The single-look rate lands at 0.05 within about 0.005 at 10,000 replications. The ten-look rate lands near 0.19, which with 10,000 replications has a Monte Carlo standard error of about 0.004, so anything in roughly 0.18 to 0.20 is consistent and anything near 0.40 indicates independent redraws.

Verify it yourself

The single-look control recovers 0.05 within two Monte Carlo standard errors; if it does not, the z statistic is wrong and the headline number is meaningless.
The crossing rate is monotone in the number of looks: 1 look near 0.05, 2 near 0.08, 5 near 0.14, 10 near 0.19.
Halving the base rate to 0.05 leaves the peeking rate essentially unchanged, since the result is about the test's random walk and not about the conversion level.
Re-running with the same seed reproduces the figure exactly.

Follow-up

Re-run with 40 looks instead of 10. Why does the curve flatten rather than continue rising linearly?
Among the replications that crossed, what is the mean observed lift, and why is it not zero?
What does an O'Brien-Fleming boundary or an always-valid confidence sequence change about this simulation, and what does each cost in power?

Read an experiment from first exposure, not assignment

Hard · experiments · window-functions · srm

fct_experiment_exposure holds experiment_id, unit_type, unit_id, variant, user_id, assigned_at_utc, first_exposed_at_utc, is_in_analysis_population and planned_end_utc. fct_event holds user_id, occurred_at_utc, is_core_action, and carries events up to a known data cut, :data_cut_utc. For one experiment randomised on unit_type = 'user', return per variant: exposed units, units with at least one core action in the seven days after that unit's own first exposure, the rate, and the variant share of exposed units. Only units whose seven-day window has fully elapsed as of the data cut belong in the readout. Units appearing under more than one variant are excluded from both arms and counted separately.

Approach

Run the contamination pass as an aggregate, not a window: SELECT unit_id FROM fct_experiment_exposure WHERE experiment_id = :exp GROUP BY unit_id HAVING COUNT(DISTINCT variant) > 1, then anti-join it away. PostgreSQL rejects COUNT(DISTINCT variant) OVER (PARTITION BY unit_id) outright, since DISTINCT is not implemented for window functions; if you want the test inline, MIN(variant) OVER (PARTITION BY unit_id) <> MAX(variant) OVER (PARTITION BY unit_id) is the equivalent that does run.
Do not resolve contamination by keeping the earliest variant. A unit that saw both arms carries treatment from both, so assigning it to either one biases that arm.
Define the population as is_in_analysis_population = TRUE AND unit_type = 'user' AND first_exposed_at_utc < planned_end_utc AND first_exposed_at_utc + interval '7 days' <= :data_cut_utc. The horizon filter is what makes the readout reproducible next week instead of drifting with every re-run; the data-cut filter is the one that actually buys seven days of follow-up, since a unit exposed an hour before the horizon otherwise contributes an hour of observation to a seven-day rate.
Measure the outcome on a per-unit relative window: LEFT JOIN fct_event on user_id with is_core_action = TRUE and occurred_at_utc in [first_exposed_at_utc, first_exposed_at_utc + interval '7 days'). LEFT JOIN so units with no outcome stay in the denominator at zero rather than being deleted by an inner join.
Check the sample ratio before reading the effect: variant share of exposed units against the intended split, tested as a binomial. Run it on the truncated population as well as on the full exposed set, because if one arm exposes later on average the data-cut filter removes more of that arm and can manufacture a ratio mismatch the randomisation did not have. A mismatch on the full set means the exposure data is not a valid randomisation and invalidates the readout rather than being a footnote under it.
Report the per-variant rate, the absolute difference, and the fact that the variance unit is unit_id. That is straightforward here only because the grain is already one row per user; a per-session outcome under user randomisation would need a delta-method or bootstrap standard error instead.

Follow-up

Some units were assigned days before they were exposed. What does analysing the assigned set instead do to the estimated effect, and in which direction?
The split is 51/49 on 400,000 exposed units. Do you read the result?
The treatment arm exposes on average two days later than control. What does that do to a fixed calendar outcome window, and which arm does it favour?

Attribute account MRR to first-touch channel without seat fan-out

Medium · fan-out · joins · revenue · attribution

dim_user holds user_id, account_id, first_touch_channel, account_created_at_utc. dim_account holds account_id, lifecycle_status. fct_subscription_period holds account_id, period_start_utc, period_end_utc, period_status, mrr_cents_constant_fx. For a given as-of date, report active MRR by the first-touch channel of the account's earliest-created user. An account has many users and many periods. The channel totals must sum exactly to total active MRR on that date, and accounts whose label is NULL must appear as their own bucket.

Approach

Reduce the label side to one row per account before any join: ROW_NUMBER() OVER (PARTITION BY account_id ORDER BY account_created_at_utc, user_id) = 1 over dim_user, carrying first_touch_channel. Joining dim_user to the period table directly repeats each revenue row once per seat.
Reduce the money side to one row per account too: the period where period_start_utc <= :as_of AND period_end_utc > :as_of AND period_status IN ('active','past_due'). If more than one row survives that filter the account holds overlapping subscriptions, which must be deduped or deliberately summed, and either way the choice is stated rather than left to the join.
Join the two one-row-per-account CTEs and SUM(mrr_cents_constant_fx). Use the constant-FX column, since the same query run in two quarters otherwise reports currency moves as channel performance.
Bucket NULL first_touch_channel as 'unattributed' with COALESCE instead of letting it drop. Roughly the share of users with no observed touch is not small, and dropping it understates the total and inflates every named channel's share.
Reconcile: the SUM over the joined result must equal the SUM over the period CTE alone. That single equality check catches fan-out immediately, which is why it is worth writing before presenting the number.

Worked solution (30 min)

Compute total active MRR on the as-of date from the period table alone and write the number down as the target.
Build the label CTE and assert COUNT(*) = COUNT(DISTINCT account_id).
Build the as-of period CTE and assert the same, investigating any account with more than one surviving row.
Join, COALESCE the channel, aggregate, and compare the total to the target.
Deliberately run the naive dim_user join and record the inflation factor, which is the MRR-weighted mean seat count.

Expected result: One row per first_touch_channel plus an 'unattributed' bucket, whose MRR values sum exactly to the independently computed total active MRR for the as-of date.

Verify it yourself

Channel total equals the standalone total from the period CTE, to the cent.
Both CTEs satisfy COUNT(*) = COUNT(DISTINCT account_id).
The unattributed bucket is present and non-zero rather than silently absent.
The naive join version produces a strictly larger total, and you can state the ratio.

Follow-up

Which user should own the account's label: earliest created, the 'owner' role, or the one who converted? What does each choice systematically favour?
What does this table entitle you to say about the value of a channel, and what does it not?
Some accounts have a parent_account_id. How does rolling those up change both the numerator and the channel mix?

Describe your process for prioritizing data science projects.

Medium · product sense and metrics

Approach

Fix the population and the time window before naming any metric.
Restate the decision this analysis has to support, and who acts on the answer.
Decompose the metric into the rates that drive it, and say which one you would check first.

Follow-up

What would you do if the primary metric and the guardrail moved in opposite directions?
Which segment would you cut first, and what would that rule out?

Given a dataset on customer purchases, how would you identify trends and anomalies?

Medium · product sense and metrics

Approach

State what result would change your recommendation, so the answer is falsifiable.
Name one primary metric, then the guardrail that stops it being gamed.
Restate the decision this analysis has to support, and who acts on the answer.

Follow-up

How would you detect that the metric is being gamed rather than genuinely improving?
What would you do if the primary metric and the guardrail moved in opposite directions?

How would you design an experiment to test the effectiveness of a new marketing campaign?

Medium · a/b testing and experimentation

Approach

Name the randomisation unit first; it decides the variance and what the test can detect.
Name the guardrails that would stop a launch even on a positive primary result.
State the primary metric and the minimum effect worth shipping, then size the test.

Follow-up

What would you conclude if the result is positive but the test is underpowered?
What would you do if you could not randomise at all?

Explain the difference between supervised and unsupervised learning.

Medium

Approach

Say what you would check first and why it is the highest-information step.
Clarify what is being asked and what a complete answer would contain.
Work from the decision backwards to the evidence you would need.

Follow-up

What assumption would you test first?
How would you know your answer was wrong?

Size an activation test before anyone writes code

Easy · power · minimum detectable effect · proportions

A team wants to test a new onboarding checklist against the seven-day activation rate: users with is_core_action = TRUE events on at least two distinct UTC dates inside the first seven days, counted from dim_user.account_created_at_utc with is_internal = FALSE. Baseline is 22%. Weekly non-internal signups are 9,000, split evenly between two arms. State the minimum detectable effect after two weeks of enrolment, the enrolment needed to detect a 1.5 percentage point absolute lift, and the earliest date a readout would be honest.

Approach

Use the two-proportion sizing shortcut n = 16 p(1-p) / d^2 per arm, where d is the absolute lift. The 16 is 2(1.96 + 0.84)^2 = 15.7 rounded, i.e. two-sided alpha 0.05, 80% power, equal arms.
Invert it for the MDE at fixed n: d = sqrt(16 p(1-p) / n). Two weeks gives 9,000 per arm, so d = sqrt(2.746 / 9000) = 0.0175, which is 1.75 percentage points absolute or 7.9% relative on a 22% base.
Run it forward for d = 0.015: n = 2.746 / 0.000225 = 12,202 per arm, 24,404 total, about 2.7 weeks of enrolment. Round up to three whole weeks so the enrolment window contains no partial week, since signups are not uniform across weekdays.
Add the metric's own lag rather than reporting the enrolment end date. Activation is unobservable until seven days after the last enrolled signup, and the definition publishes on an eight-day lag, so the readout lands 29 days after launch.
Close by testing whether the ask is realistic. If the team's honest prior is a 0.5pp lift, the requirement is about 110,000 per arm and roughly 24 weeks of enrolment, and saying so before launch is the deliverable.

Worked solution (20 min)

Compute p(1-p) = 0.22 x 0.78 = 0.1716 and 16 x 0.1716 = 2.746.
MDE at two weeks: n = 4,500 per arm per week x 2 = 9,000; d = sqrt(2.746 / 9000) = 0.0175.
Sample for d = 0.015: n = 2.746 / 0.000225 = 12,202 per arm, which is 2.71 weeks of enrolment, so enrol three whole weeks.
Readout date = 21 days of enrolment + 8 days of follow-up and publication lag = 29 days from launch.
State the boundary of what this quarter can answer: below roughly 0.7pp the requirement passes 56,000 per arm and more than a full quarter of enrolment.

Expected result: MDE after two weeks is 1.75 percentage points absolute, 7.9% relative. Detecting 1.5pp needs 12,202 users per arm, so three weeks of enrolment and a readout 29 days after launch. Detecting 0.5pp needs about 110,000 per arm, roughly 24 weeks, which is the answer the team needs to hear before the code is written.

Verify it yourself

MDE must fall as 1 / sqrt(n). Doubling enrolment from two weeks to four should move 1.75pp to 1.24pp, not to 0.88pp.
Substituting d = 0.0175 back into 16 p(1-p) / d^2 must return about 9,000 per arm.
An exact two-proportion calculator at alpha 0.05 two-sided, power 0.80, p1 = 0.22, p2 = 0.235 returns about 12,260 per arm, within half a percent of the shortcut.

Follow-up

The team also wants trial-to-paid read from the same test. What does a second primary metric do to your alpha, and what would you actually do about it?
Signups are heavier on weekdays. What goes wrong if enrolment runs 17 days instead of 14?
The activation definition uses a two-distinct-days threshold. If that were loosened to one day, what happens to the baseline rate and to the sample you need?

Gross revenue churn doubled with no cancellations behind it

Hard · billing-periods · fx · revenue-churn · decomposition

Gross monthly revenue churn computed from fct_subscription_period doubled from 1.8% to 3.6% in one month. The support queue shows no rise in cancellations and renewals look normal. You have fct_subscription_period with subscription_id, account_id, period_start_utc, period_end_utc, mrr_cents, mrr_cents_constant_fx, seats_billed, period_status, change_reason and canceled_at_utc, plus dim_account. Decompose the 1.8-point rise into named mechanisms, size each in points of the headline, and state the remainder you cannot explain.

Approach

Reconstruct the numerator row by row and group it by change_reason before arguing about causes. A mid-period plan or seat change closes the current period row and opens a new one, so any implementation that treats a closed row as lost revenue books upgrades, downgrades and seat changes as churn; the change_reason breakdown of the numerator makes that visible in one query.
Check the recognition timestamp. Churn belongs at period_end_utc, because revenue continues until the period ends, not at canceled_at_utc when the button was pressed. Then count period_end_utc rows per month across thirteen months: annual cohorts concentrate their period ends in the month twelve months after they were signed, so a spike that repeats in the same month last year is seasonality in the book, not an event this month.
Recompute the whole numerator and denominator on mrr_cents_constant_fx. If the constant-currency figure is materially flatter, the move is an exchange-rate translation and belongs nowhere in a churn narrative.
Check period_status handling. Rows with period_status = 'past_due' are dunning, not cancellation; a status-based rule counts them as loss while a period-end rule does not, and a dunning backlog can move the number by itself.
Express every mechanism in points of the headline, sum them, and print the residual explicitly next to the month-to-month standard deviation of the prior twelve months. A decomposition without a stated remainder is a story, not an accounting.

Follow-up

Which of these mechanisms should be fixed in the metric definition and which should be reported as a genuine business fact?
How would you present a month whose churn is dominated by an annual cohort anniversary without the audience concluding the business is deteriorating?
What would you change so that an upgrade can never enter the churn numerator again, and how would you test that it worked?

Suggested practice checklist

For someone who can already write the query and train the model but stalls when asked what to measure or whether a change is worth making. Metric definition and case structure come first; the technical work is kept as maintenance rather than the centre of the week.

Day 1 — Metric anatomy

For three products you use daily, write one primary metric, two input metrics that plausibly move it, and one guardrail that would catch a cheap way of moving the primary at the cost of the product.
For one of them, specify the metric precisely enough that two analysts would return the same number: numerator, denominator, unit of observation, time window, and how returning and deleted accounts are treated.
Pick a ratio metric and write what happens to it when the denominator shrinks for reasons unrelated to the numerator, with a concrete example of that happening.

Deliverable: A one-page metric tree for one product, with the primary metric written as an unambiguous spec.

Day 2 — Diagnosing a drop without guessing

Take the prompt "weekly active users fell 8 percent week over week" and write the segmentation plan before proposing any cause: platform, region, tenure cohort, acquisition channel, and whether the movement sits in the numerator or in a changed denominator.
List the instrumentation failures that manufacture fake drops (a client release that stopped firing an event, a bot filter change, a shifted date boundary or timezone) and write the query that rules out each one.
Rehearse stating the boring explanations first, seasonality and day-of-week composition, before reaching for a product cause.

Deliverable: A drop-diagnosis checklist short enough to recite from memory in under a minute.

Day 3 — Should we build it

Take a feature idea and write it as a bet: what you believe is true, what would have to be true for it to pay off, the metric that would confirm it, and the effect size that would justify the engineering cost.
Size the opportunity top-down and bottom-up, then reconcile the two numbers in writing instead of quoting whichever is friendlier.
Write the counter-metric that would make you kill the feature even if it wins on the primary metric.

Deliverable: A one-page product memo ending in a decision rather than a list of considerations.

Day 4 — The places aggregate numbers lie

Construct a Simpson's paradox numerically: two segments where the treatment wins within each segment yet loses overall, and identify the shift in segment weights that causes it.
Take a heavy right-tailed quantity such as revenue per user and write why the mean is the wrong summary, which percentile you would report instead, and what a moving mean with a stable median tells you.
Write your definition of a session for the product from day one, then name two real behaviours it misclassifies.

Deliverable: One page holding a worked Simpson's paradox table and a session definition with its two known failure cases.

Day 5 — Technical maintenance, aimed at metrics

Solve four timed SQL prompts that all end in a ratio metric, so the question of grain stays live in every answer.
Compute a 95 percent confidence interval for a proportion on a small sample, and state why the normal approximation is unreliable when either np or n(1 minus p) falls below roughly 10, along with which interval you would use instead.
Take one metric from your day-one tree, write the query that computes it correctly, then write the query that computes it wrong in the most plausible way and explain how you would notice.

Deliverable: Four solved prompts plus a matched correct and plausible-wrong query for one metric.

Day 6 — Turning engineering work into data science stories

Write three project stories as situation, decision, trade-off, outcome, each carrying one number and one thing you got wrong.
For the story you will lead with, prepare an answer to "what would you do differently" that names a decision you made, not a constraint you were handed.
Practise the sentence that reframes a systems project as a question project: the question the work answered, ahead of the pipeline it shipped.

Deliverable: Three written stories with the lead story delivered aloud and timed under four minutes.

Day 7 — Mock case and gap list

Run a 40-minute mock case with someone playing a product manager who pushes back on your metric choice, and record it.
Listen back and mark every moment you proposed a solution before the success metric existed.
Rewrite those moments as the question you should have asked, and rehearse the first 90 seconds of the case until scoping comes before solving.

Deliverable: A recorded case plus a rewritten opening 90 seconds.

Being wrong in public

A number you shipped turned out to be wrong, and someone had already acted on it. That is one of the most useful stories a data person can carry. What is being scored is how fast you noticed, who you told first, and what you changed in the process so the same class of error could not repeat quietly.

Tell me about a time when you had to work with a difficult teammate. How did you handle it?

Medium · behavioural and stakeholder questions

Approach

Name the disagreement or constraint, and how you resolved it with evidence.
Close with what you would do differently, concretely.
Pick a story where you drove the decision, not one where you observed it.

Follow-up

How did you know the outcome was caused by your change?
What would you do differently if you ran that project again?

Disagree with a product manager's roadmap claim using data

Medium · causal inference · selection bias · stakeholder

A product manager proposes building a feature on the argument that accounts connecting an integration in week one retain three times better at week four. The figure is correctly computed from dim_user and fct_event, and it has already been shown to leadership. You have one scheduled 1:1 before the roadmap locks. Deliver the specific analysis you would run to test whether the relationship is causal, the result that would change your own mind, and how you open the conversation so that the PM is not put in the position of defending the number in public.

Approach

Recognise what is being probed: whether you can separate a number being right from an inference being wrong, and do it without costing the PM face. The generic answer recites that correlation is not causation; the strong one names the specific confound and proposes the cheapest design that could distinguish the explanations.
State the alternative concretely. Accounts that connect an integration in week one are accounts that already have a workflow and a technical owner, so week-one intent plausibly drives both the connection and week-four retention. The selection is on intent, which no amount of post-hoc adjustment observes.
Order the discriminating analyses by cost. First, condition on pre-connection activity by comparing retention within strata of week-one core-action count, which removes the crude version of the confound but not unobserved intent. Second, look for variation in integration availability that was unrelated to intent, such as a staggered release or an outage window. Third, an encouragement design that randomises a prompt to connect and reads the intent-to-treat effect on week-four retention, which is the only version that identifies an effect.
Run the timing check, because it is nearly free and it is the most persuasive single piece of evidence. If the retention advantage among connectors is already visible before any of them connected, the causal story is largely finished.
Pre-commit to what would change your mind and say it before you show anything: if the gap survives stratification and the encouragement arm moves week-four retention at all, the feature has a case and you will say so.
Open the 1:1 by agreeing with the true part, that the correlation is real and worth chasing, then ask what effect size the roadmap plan assumes. That makes the size of the claim the topic instead of its authorship.

Follow-up

The encouragement test needs six weeks and the roadmap locks in two. What do you recommend in the interim?
Stratifying on week-one activity closes half the gap. What do you conclude, and what do you still not know?
How would you word this in the roadmap document so the PM's original number is reframed rather than deleted?

Handle a request for numbers supporting a decision already made

Hard · integrity · framing · stakeholder

A senior leader has already decided to sunset a plan tier and asks you for the analysis showing it is the right call. Accounts on that tier carry 6% of MRR at constant FX and have the highest licensed-seat utilisation in the book. The leader's support matters to your next review cycle, and the decision is being presented in four days. Deliver what you produce, what you decline to produce, and the exact sentence you will say in the meeting where the number appears on a slide.

Approach

Recognise what is being probed: whether you can find the legitimate request inside an illegitimate framing instead of either complying or refusing on principle. The generic answer promises to push back; the strong one produces something genuinely useful and states its limits in the room, without ambushing anybody.
Separate the decision from the justification. Sunsetting the tier may be correct for reasons the data does not hold, such as support cost, roadmap surface area or sales motion. What you decline is a one-sided document. What you produce is the case read both ways, which also happens to be more useful to the leader.
Build the symmetric analysis: MRR at risk at constant FX, the share of affected accounts with a plausible migration path given seats_licensed and billing_term, the recovery rate assumed for that migration and where it came from, and the downside case in which high-utilisation accounts treat the sunset as a reason to re-evaluate the vendor entirely.
Surface the inconvenient fact privately and early. The highest seat utilisation in the book is a retention signal, and the leader should hold it before the room does, so they can incorporate it rather than be caught by it.
Agree the meeting sentence in advance with the leader, so that nobody is surprised. Something to the effect that the tier is 6% of MRR and its accounts are the most heavily used in the book, and that the case for sunsetting rests on cost and focus rather than on revenue. That is true, it supports the decision on its real grounds, and it stops the deck claiming the numbers endorse it.
Decide your own line before you need it: what you will not put your name to, and that the route if asked anyway is your own manager rather than a confrontation in the meeting.

Follow-up

The deck circulates with your analysis included and the downside case removed. What do you do, and by when?
What changes if the honest analysis says the sunset is clearly the wrong call?
How do you write the same memo when the leader is your skip-level and the meeting is tomorrow?