Interview guides · ArdentMC

ArdentMC Data Scientist Interview Questions & Guide 2026

Diagnose a metric move for ArdentMC data scientist prep: split by segment, rule out a logging change, separate mix shift from behaviour.

The 60-second brief

A Data Scientist at ArdentMC serves as a vital bridge between complex technical data architecture and actionable business strategy. Operating within a high-stakes environment, you will be responsible for translating raw, often unstructured data into insights that drive mission-critical decisions. Your work directly impacts how ArdentMC optimizes its technical solutions, ensuring that the organization remains agile and data-driven in its service delivery.

Most of the loop measures decision-making under uncertainty rather than recall. You are scored on whether you state your assumptions, commit to an estimate you can defend, and say explicitly what evidence would change it.

Focus areas

Report only matured cohorts for loss metrics
Reconcile amounts in minor units and currency
Set fraud thresholds by expected cost

Overview

This role is not merely about building models; it is about solving real-world problems. You will work on projects ranging from graph analytics and technical analytics management to high-level subject matter expertise in IT environments. Because ArdentMC values precision and reliability, your ability to communicate complex findings to non-technical stakeholders is just as critical as your technical proficiency in SQL, experimentation, and statistical modeling.

Where to focus your preparation

Treat the sections below as preparation areas and confirm the format with your recruiter.

Preparation focus

No round sequence has been reported for this company, so work the categories below and confirm the format with your recruiter.

What to demonstrate

Breadth across SQL, experimentation and product reasoning
Ability to state assumptions before choosing a method

How to prepare

Drill the practice exercises below and time yourself
Prepare three quantified stories about decisions you drove

Where candidates lose points

Reading the most recent months of fraud and dispute rates as final

Consumer dispute rights commonly run around 120 days from the transaction or expected delivery date, and several reason codes run considerably longer, so the disputes belonging to a recent transaction month have simply not been filed yet. Any chart attributed by transaction date therefore slopes down at the right edge regardless of what is happening. The fix is to report only matured cohorts, or to apply development factors estimated from completed months and to show the estimate as an estimate.

Using written premium as the denominator of a loss ratio

Premium is written at inception and earned pro rata across the exposure period, so in a growing book written premium runs ahead of earned premium and the loss ratio comes out too low, with the error reversing when the book shrinks. The numerator has the mirror-image problem if it omits incurred-but-not-reported reserves, since recent accident periods then look profitable twice over. Both sides must refer to the same exposure period, which is what an accident-period view at a fixed development age enforces.

Explaining an aggregate move without decomposing the mix shift

Split the change in the aggregate into within-segment movement and movement in segment weights before you explain it. Every segment's rate can fall while the overall rate rises, purely because volume shifted toward segments that already had higher rates.

Reading an observational correlation as a causal effect

Name the confounder you are most worried about and the design that would remove it: an experiment, a difference-in-differences with a checked pre-period trend, an instrument, or a regression discontinuity. When none is available, state which direction the bias likely runs and bound the claim accordingly.

Questions & practice

Collapse retry chains and compute a dollar-weighted approval rate

Medium · sessionisation · window functions · dollar-weighted rates

fct_payment_authorization gives auth_id, card_token_id, merchant_id, amount_minor, transaction_currency, requested_at, auth_result, is_reversal, channel and issuer_country. Two reference frames give the minor-unit exponent per currency and a daily rate to one reporting currency. Collapse retry chains first: attempts sharing card_token_id, merchant_id and amount_minor whose consecutive gaps are under 15 minutes form a single attempt, whose outcome is its last row. Exclude reversals and zero-amount verifications. Return a 7-day rolling dollar-weighted approval rate by channel and issuer_country.

Approach

Filter before grouping: drop is_reversal rows and zero-amount verifications, since neither is a purchase attempt and both would otherwise sit in the denominator.
Sort by card_token_id, merchant_id, amount_minor and requested_at, take the gap to the previous row within that key, mark a chain start where the gap exceeds 15 minutes or the key changes, and label chains with a cumulative sum of that flag. This is a gap rule between consecutive attempts, not a fixed clock bucket, so a chain may span more than 15 minutes in total.
Keep each chain's terminal row by requested_at. If a retry was approved, the purchase was approved; keeping the first row reports the decline that caused the retry as the outcome.
Convert amounts exactly once: amount_minor divided by 10 to the power of the currency exponent, multiplied by the reference rate for the authorization date. Do not reach for settlement_fx_rate, which is null on precisely the declined rows the denominator needs.
Build the rolling window as a ratio of two rolling sums, approved value over total value, per channel and issuer_country. A rolling mean of daily ratios weights a quiet Sunday the same as a busy Friday.

Worked solution (35 min)

Filter out reversals and zero-amount rows, then sort by the chain key and requested_at.
Compute the within-key time difference, derive the chain start flag and the chain id, and take the last row per chain with groupby(chain_id).tail(1) after sorting.
Join the exponent and daily rate tables, compute value_reporting, and assert no nulls remain after the join.
Aggregate approved value and total value to a daily grain by channel and issuer_country, reindex to a complete date range per group so missing days are zero rather than absent.
Take 7-day rolling sums of both columns and divide, then confirm one hand-picked group-day against a direct filter.

Expected result: A DataFrame keyed by date, channel and issuer_country with approved_value, total_value and approval_rate. The collapsed attempt count is materially below the raw row count, with the gap concentrated in declined ecommerce rows, and ecommerce sits below card_present.

Verify it yourself

Within every chain, all consecutive requested_at gaps are under 15 minutes; across chains with the same key, at least one gap is not.
Chain count is strictly below raw attempt count, and the difference is concentrated in declined rows rather than spread evenly.
Total converted value on a single-currency single-day subset equals the raw amount_minor sum divided by that currency's exponent power, times that day's rate.
The rolling rate on one chosen day matches a direct filter-and-divide over the preceding seven days.

Follow-up

The count-weighted rate is flat while the dollar-weighted rate falls 80 basis points. What do you look at first?
How would you choose the 15-minute window rather than inheriting it?
A merchant moves from two retries to five. Which of your two rates moves, and is that a real change in approval quality?

Simulate false alarms in a merchant chargeback monitoring rule

Medium · simulation · rare events · monitoring thresholds

Baseline matured first-chargeback rate is 12 per 10,000 settled transactions. A monitoring rule alerts when a merchant's observed monthly rate exceeds twice baseline. For monthly settled transaction counts of 500, 2,000, 10,000 and 50,000, simulate the false-alarm probability per merchant-month under the baseline, and the power to detect a merchant whose true rate is 30 per 10,000. Then, for a portfolio of 4,000 merchants split 60, 25, 10 and 5 percent across those four counts, give the expected number of false alarms per month.

Approach

Recognise the rule is a threshold on an integer count, not on a continuous rate. At n = 500, twice baseline is 24 per 10,000, so the first observable value above it is 2 chargebacks, or 40 per 10,000. Derive the trigger count for every n before simulating anything.
Draw binomial counts with numpy at p = 0.0012 and take the share at or above the trigger for the false-alarm rate, then repeat at p = 0.0030 for power. Use at least 200,000 draws per cell so a probability near 0.001 has a usable standard error.
Cross-check every simulated cell against the Poisson approximation with lambda = n*p, which is tight here because p is tiny. A mismatch almost always means the trigger count is off by one.
Weight the per-merchant false-alarm probabilities by the portfolio mix, and report the share of expected alerts contributed by each size band rather than only the total.
Close on the operating consequence: a fixed multiplicative threshold is not a constant false-alarm rate across merchant sizes, so either the threshold scales with n or small merchants need a minimum volume before the rule applies.

Follow-up

How would you set a threshold that holds the false-alarm rate roughly constant across merchant size?
The rule reads the transaction month, but disputes arrive for up to 120 days afterwards. What does that do to the alert and how would you fix it?
What does a month of these false alarms cost, and how would you decide whether it is worth paying?

Estimate a delinquency roll-rate matrix and project twelve months

Hard · roll rates · markov chain · survivorship

fct_loan_performance_monthly gives loan_id, as_of_month_end, months_on_book, delinquency_bucket, charge_off_flag, prepaid_in_full_flag and restructured_flag. Build a month-to-month transition matrix over the five delinquency buckets plus absorbing charged_off and prepaid states. Loans that stop appearing must be routed to an absorbing state rather than dropped. Project the current book forward 12 months by repeated matrix multiplication and report the projected share reaching charge-off. Handle restructured_flag explicitly, and name one place the Markov assumption fails on this data.

Approach

Build consecutive month pairs per loan by shifting as_of_month_end within loan_id, then verify the shifted value is exactly one month later. A gap is not a transition, it is an exit you have not resolved yet.
Resolve exits before counting anything. A loan whose last row carries charge_off_flag moves to charged_off, one carrying prepaid_in_full_flag moves to prepaid, and one that disappears with neither is a data question to raise rather than silently discard, because discarding it is survivorship that inflates every cure rate.
Count pairs into a 7 by 7 matrix and row-normalise. Assert every row sums to one and the two absorbing rows are the identity; a row that does not sum to one means exits were dropped.
Decide and state the restructure rule. Restructuring resets days_past_due, so a dpd_60_89 to current move on a restructured loan is not a cure. Either give restructured loans their own state or carry the pre-restructure bucket, but do not let that move land in the cure cell.
Project by taking the current bucket distribution as a row vector and multiplying by the matrix twelve times. Report the charged_off entry, and report it again from an all-current starting vector so the reader can see how much of the projection comes from loans that are already delinquent today.
State the homogeneity failure plainly: transition rates depend strongly on months_on_book, so one pooled matrix applied to a book with a young mix understates early-life delinquency. If the mix is moving, estimate separate matrices by seasoning band.

Follow-up

How would you validate the projection against what actually happened, and over what window?
The cure rate out of dpd_30_59 rose five points last quarter. What are the candidate explanations and how would you separate them?
When would you prefer a vintage curve to a roll-rate projection, and why?

Accident-quarter loss ratio on earned rather than written premium

Hard · loss ratio · earned vs written · development age

From fct_policy_period_monthly, compute the accident-quarter loss ratio by product_line: incurred losses, being paid_loss_minor plus case_reserve_minor plus ibnr_reserve_minor, over earned_premium_minor for the same accident quarter. State explicitly whether loss_adjustment_expense_minor is included and apply that choice consistently. Also output the same ratio computed on written_premium_minor so the two can be compared. The table holds current values with no valuation-date snapshot. Say in one line which comparison this schema cannot support and what you would need to support it.

Approach

Derive the accident quarter from as_of_month with date_trunc, and note that the table already attributes losses to the month of the loss event while earning premium pro rata into the same month, which is what makes the two sides comparable at all.
Aggregate earned_premium_minor, written_premium_minor and the three loss components to product_line and accident quarter in one pass, keeping loss adjustment expense as its own column so the inclusion choice is a final-select decision rather than something buried in a CTE.
Compute both ratios side by side and a third column for their difference, because the size and sign of that difference is a direct read on whether the book grew or shrank in the quarter.
State the limitation plainly: every row carries today's reserve estimate, so each accident quarter is observed at a different development age and a cross-quarter comparison mixes development with underwriting. A fixed development age needs a valuation-date dimension, that is one row per accident period per valuation, which this table does not have.
Guard against the mirror-image error on the numerator by confirming ibnr_reserve_minor is non-zero on recent quarters; if it is null or zero there, the recent periods are understated twice over and the series is not usable.

Follow-up

Written premium exceeds earned premium by 18 percent this quarter and by 3 percent two years ago. What happened to the book, and what does it do to each ratio?
How would you build a development triangle from a valuation-dated version of this table, and what would you use the chain-ladder factors for?
Statutory presentation conventionally takes the expense ratio on written premium while the loss ratio uses earned. How do you avoid a combined ratio that quietly mixes the two bases?

Monthly delinquency roll rates with honest exiting-account denominators

Hard · roll rates · window functions · self joins

From fct_loan_performance_monthly, compute month-over-month roll rates: for each as_of_month_end and delinquency_bucket, the share of loans in that bucket that are in a worse state at the following month end. Use this disposition convention and apply it without exception: charge-off is the terminal state one rank past dpd_90_plus, so a loan that charges off has rolled forward, not exited; loans that leave the book any other way — prepaid in full, sold, matured, or simply absent at the next month end — are exited. Bucket order is current, dpd_1_29, dpd_30_59, dpd_60_89, dpd_90_plus, then charged_off. Return from_month, from_bucket, accounts, rolled_forward, cured, stayed, exited and roll_rate, and show that the four dispositions sum to accounts on every row.

Approach

Map the five delinquency_bucket values to ranks 0 through 4 in a small inline VALUES list, and reserve rank 5 for charged_off, because 'worse' is an ordering statement and enum text does not sort that way reliably. Read charge-off from charge_off_flag on the next month's row rather than from delinquency_bucket, which keeps carrying whatever delinquency value the loan held when it was written off.
Use LEAD(as_of_month_end), LEAD(bucket_rank) and LEAD(charge_off_flag) OVER (PARTITION BY loan_id ORDER BY as_of_month_end), then verify the leading month end is exactly one month after the current one, since a loan missing a month would otherwise appear to cure or roll across a gap it never traversed.
Classify each loan-month into exactly one of four labels off the adjacent next row, whose rank is 5 when its charge_off_flag is true and its mapped bucket rank otherwise. rolled_forward: the next rank is strictly greater. cured: strictly lower. stayed: equal. exited: there is no adjacent next row at all, which is where prepayment, sale, maturity and a gap in the monthly history land.
Define rolled_forward as 'any strictly worse rank', not 'rank plus one'. Under normal monthly aging the only reachable worse state is the next bucket, so the two definitions coincide — except at charge-off, where a loan can go from dpd_60_89 straight to rank 5. A strict plus-one test leaves those loan-months matching no branch and breaks the exhaustiveness invariant.
Be explicit about why charge-off is a roll rather than an exit: routed to exited, dpd_90_plus has no worse state left, so its roll_rate is identically zero by construction — arithmetic, not a credit finding. At rank 5 the dpd_90_plus row reports roll-to-loss, which is the number a loss forecast actually consumes.
Aggregate by from_month and from_bucket and require that rolled_forward + cured + stayed + exited equals accounts on every row, which is the invariant that proves the classification is exhaustive and mutually exclusive.

Worked solution (45 min)

CTE ranks: an inline VALUES mapping of the five delinquency_bucket values to ranks 0 through 4, joined onto the monthly rows. Rank 5 is not in the map; it is assigned during classification.
CTE leads: add LEAD(as_of_month_end), LEAD(bucket_rank) and LEAD(charge_off_flag) partitioned by loan_id ordered by as_of_month_end.
CTE classified: derive next_rank as CASE WHEN next_charge_off_flag THEN 5 ELSE next_bucket_rank END, then a CASE expression producing exactly one label per loan-month — exited when the next month end is null or is not the current month end plus one month, otherwise rolled_forward / cured / stayed by comparing next_rank to bucket_rank.
Aggregate to from_month and from_bucket with COUNT(*) and four FILTER counts, then compute roll_rate as rolled_forward over accounts with a numeric cast.
Assert the exhaustiveness invariant in a final HAVING or a separate verification query before trusting any number.

Expected result: One row per month and originating bucket, with the four disposition counts summing to accounts on every row and roll_rate between 0 and 1. Roll rates climb across current, dpd_1_29, dpd_30_59 and dpd_60_89, because each successive bucket holds loans that have already failed to cure. Do not expect that climb to continue into dpd_90_plus: that bucket is a catch-all holding several monthly cohorts at once until the charge-off policy retires them, so its roll-to-loss rate is set by the policy horizon — under a 180-day policy roughly a third of the bucket rolls in a given month — and usually sits below the dpd_60_89 rate. Cure out of dpd_90_plus is well under ten percent.

Verify it yourself

rolled_forward + cured + stayed + exited equals accounts for every row, with no exceptions.
SUM(accounts) for a given from_month equals the count of loan rows at that month end, so no loan-month was dropped or counted twice.
Removing the adjacency test changes the cure and roll counts, and the size of that change is exactly the number of loans with a gap in their monthly history.
The rolled_forward count for from_bucket dpd_90_plus in month M is at least the number of loans whose first charge_off_flag = true row falls at month end M+1. If it is materially lower, charge-off is being routed into exited.
roll_rate for dpd_90_plus is strictly greater than zero in any month with charge-offs. A flat zero on that bucket across every month is the signature of charge-off classified as an exit, not of an unusually stable book.
No loan-month is counted as both rolled_forward and exited: a loan with a charged-off row at M+1 has an adjacent next row, so it can never reach the exited branch.

Follow-up

Project the next three months of dpd_90_plus inflow from these roll rates. What assumption does that projection make, and when does it break?
A restructure resets days_past_due to zero. What does that do to the cure rate out of dpd_60_89, and how would you separate a real cure from a reset?
Argue the other convention: prepayment in exited but charge-off also in exited, with roll rates reported only for the four non-terminal buckets. What does that series answer better, and what does it lose?
The charge-off policy changed from 180 to 120 days. Show where that appears in this table and what it does to the dpd_90_plus roll rate specifically.

How would you design a metric to measure the success of a new feature rollout?

Medium · product sense and metrics

Approach

Decompose the metric into the rates that drive it, and say which one you would check first.
Fix the population and the time window before naming any metric.
Name one primary metric, then the guardrail that stops it being gamed.

Follow-up

Which segment would you cut first, and what would that rule out?
How would you detect that the metric is being gamed rather than genuinely improving?

How do you balance long-term user experience with short-term engagement metrics?

Medium · product sense and metrics

Approach

Decompose the metric into the rates that drive it, and say which one you would check first.
Fix the population and the time window before naming any metric.
Restate the decision this analysis has to support, and who acts on the answer.

Follow-up

Which segment would you cut first, and what would that rule out?
What would you do if the primary metric and the guardrail moved in opposite directions?

If you notice a sudden 10% drop in a core product metric, what is your step-by-step process for diagnosing the root cause?

Medium · product sense and metrics

Approach

Decompose the metric into the rates that drive it, and say which one you would check first.
State what result would change your recommendation, so the answer is falsifiable.
Name one primary metric, then the guardrail that stops it being gamed.

Follow-up

Which segment would you cut first, and what would that rule out?
How would you detect that the metric is being gamed rather than genuinely improving?

How would you determine if a decline in a metric is due to seasonal trends or a technical issue?

Medium · product sense and metrics

Approach

Decompose the metric into the rates that drive it, and say which one you would check first.
Restate the decision this analysis has to support, and who acts on the answer.
Fix the population and the time window before naming any metric.

Follow-up

What would you do if the primary metric and the guardrail moved in opposite directions?
Which segment would you cut first, and what would that rule out?

Price a false decline when the label does not exist

Hard · proxy metrics · selection bias · randomised holdout

Your expected-cost threshold needs a figure for what a false decline costs beyond the margin on the blocked transaction. fct_payment_authorization records the decline, nothing records what the customer did next elsewhere, and declined transactions never produce a fraud outcome, so neither side of the error is directly observable. Propose the measurement: the proxy you would build from the tables you have, the design that yields an unbiased estimate for at least part of the score range, the bias in each, and the single sentence you would attach to the number when it reaches a pricing decision.

Approach

Write down what is unobservable and why. The counterfactual spend of a customer who was not declined, and the fraud label on any transaction the rule blocked, are both missing because of the decision itself. Missingness that depends on the decision is not fixed by matching on observed covariates.
Build the observational proxy anyway and be specific. For customers receiving a first risk-rule decline in a window, compare settled volume and active status over the following 30 and 90 days against customers matched on pre-period settled volume, tenure, segment and channel mix who attempted a comparable transaction and were approved. The bias runs one way: matching conditions on having attempted something that scored near the cutoff, and part of the declined group are genuine fraudsters whose disappearance is a saving rather than a loss, so the estimate overstates the damage.
Buy one unbiased local estimate. Hold a small random share of authorizations inside a defined risk_score band out of the decline rule and approve them, sizing the sample in advance from the expected fraud rate in that band so the cost of the experiment is known before it runs. The result is unbiased for that band only, and it is simultaneously the only source of fraud labels in the declined region.
Bound the extrapolation instead of hiding it. Run the holdout in two or three adjacent bands and report the spread. If the effect is flat across bands a constant is defensible; if it is steep, quote band-specific figures and decline to supply a single number.
Handle the window. Attrition after a decline can resolve over months, so a 90-day window truncates it and the randomised estimate is a lower bound on long-run damage at the same time as the observational version is an upper bound. Stating both directions is what makes the number safe to use.
Write the sentence that travels with the number: what it is (an estimate from a randomised holdout in one score band over a 90-day window), what it is not (a measurement anywhere else on the score range), and which way it is likely to be wrong.

Worked solution (40 min)

Define the decline cohort and the matched comparison cohort precisely, including matching variables and the pre-period window, and produce the 30-day and 90-day settled-volume difference.
Decompose the declined cohort into customers who never transact again and customers who transact less, since fraudsters concentrate in the first group and that split tells you how much of the estimate is contamination.
Write the holdout design: score band, sample share, expected fraud rate in band, expected cost of running it, and the run length needed to detect an effect large enough to change the cutoff.
Recompute p* = C_FP / (C_FP + C_FN) at the top and bottom of your estimated cost range and state whether the range changes the cutoff you would set.
Write the one-sentence caveat that will be quoted alongside the number in the pricing decision.

Expected result: Two numbers with opposite biases, an observational estimate labelled as an upper bound and a randomised in-band estimate labelled unbiased for that band only, plus a sensitivity table showing how p* moves across the range and an explicit statement of whether the residual uncertainty changes the decision.

Verify it yourself

If the cost range moves p* by less than the granularity at which the rule can actually be set, further measurement is not worth buying and that is the finding.
The observational estimate should exceed the randomised one in magnitude. If it does not, the matching is capturing something other than the effect of the decline and needs re-examining.
Removing customers with zero prior settled volume from both cohorts should shrink the observational estimate, since new-account fraud concentrates there.

Follow-up

Compliance and finance both object to deliberately approving transactions you believe are fraudulent. What is your answer, and how do you size the holdout?
Your interval spans the decision boundary. What do you recommend?
How would you detect that this number has gone stale?

Settled volume jumps after a new acceptance corridor launches

Medium · minor units · currency conversion · reconciliation

Settled payment volume per active customer rose 12 percent in the month a new acceptance corridor went live. The pipeline sums settlement_amount_minor from fct_payment_authorization and divides by 100 to get major units. Columns available: amount_minor, transaction_currency, captured_amount_minor, settlement_amount_minor, settlement_currency, settlement_fx_rate, settled_at, is_reversal, issuer_country, acquirer_country. Confirm or refute the 12 percent, and specify exactly the conversion the metric should be using.

Approach

Split the month-over-month increase by settlement_currency. If one currency carries nearly all of it while its transaction count barely moved, the problem is arithmetic rather than demand, and that is a two-minute check.
Look up each currency's ISO 4217 exponent. Dividing a three-decimal currency by 100 instead of 1000 overstates it tenfold; dividing a zero-decimal currency by 100 understates it hundredfold. Neither is a rounding issue.
Rewrite the conversion to scale settlement_amount_minor by ten to the power of that currency's exponent, then convert to the reporting currency. Do not reuse settlement_fx_rate for this; it is the rate applied between transaction and settlement currency at settlement time, not a reporting-currency rate.
Check the other half of the series too. settlement_amount_minor is denominated in settlement_currency while amount_minor is in transaction_currency, so any series that mixes the two is uninterpretable regardless of the exponent fix.
Exclude reversals and refunds, recompute, then reconcile the corrected total to the settlement ledger for the same period and show the tie-out in the write-up.
Recompute the per-customer denominator on the corrected month, since a new corridor adds customers as well as volume and the ratio can move either way once the numerator is right.

Follow-up

Where else in the warehouse does a hardcoded divide-by-100 appear, and how would you find every instance?
What test would fail the build the next time a currency with a different exponent is onboarded?
The reporting-currency rate is itself a choice. Which rate, on which date, and why does finance care about the answer?

Suggested practice checklist

Roughly 90 minutes a night on weekdays with one longer weekend block. The plan deliberately cuts scope rather than compressing everything, on the assumption that finishing one thing a night beats half-starting four.

Day 1 — Fix the scope and set a baseline

Read the role description and write the three things the loop will almost certainly test, then write an explicit not-doing list for everything else and keep it visible all week.
Take one 20-minute SQL prompt and one 10-minute metric question cold, and write the single sentence that says what blocked each attempt, since that sentence is what decides which two topics get the most evenings.
Set the week's one rule: one problem finished to completion every night, including the night you only have 40 minutes.

Deliverable: A one-page scope with an explicit not-doing list and two cold attempts, each carrying one sentence on what blocked it.

Day 2 — One query pattern, written three times

Choose the single pattern most likely to appear (a cohort retention grid, or a funnel counted by user) and write it three times from a blank file rather than editing the previous attempt.
On the third attempt, write the grain of every CTE as a comment before writing its body.
Stop at 90 minutes even if the third version is imperfect, and write the one thing you would fix with another hour.

Deliverable: Three independent versions of the same query plus a note on what changed between them.

Day 3 — Only the statistics you will be asked to defend

Write, in under 200 words, how you would decide whether a difference between two groups is real: the test, its assumptions, and what you would switch to when an assumption fails.
Compute a 95 percent confidence interval for a difference in proportions by hand on realistic numbers, then write in one sentence what changes if the two samples are paired rather than independent.
Write your answer to "what does a p-value mean", check it against a definition, and delete the version that describes it as the probability the hypothesis is true.

Deliverable: A 200-word written answer and one hand-computed interval you can reproduce under pressure.

Day 4 — One case, and the assumptions holding it up

Answer one product case aloud in 20 minutes with a recording running, then listen back with a pen and mark every claim you asserted without saying what it rested on: an assumed user behaviour, an assumed data source, an assumed baseline rate, an assumed grain.
Pick the three assumptions the recommendation actually depends on, write how you would check each one against data, and say which one being wrong would flip the recommendation rather than merely weaken it.
Write the four-step structure you used onto a card small enough to hold in working memory when you are nervous.

Deliverable: One recording, three load-bearing assumptions each with a written check, and a four-step structure card.

Day 5 — Your own work, timed

Write a 90-second version and a four-minute version of your main project, and time both out loud rather than reading them.
Prepare answers to the two follow-ups that always come: what you would do differently, and how you knew it worked.
Put one number in the first sentence and be able to say exactly where that number came from and what it excludes.

Deliverable: Two timed narratives with one defensible number in the opening line.

Day 6 — The one full rehearsal, in a longer weekend block

Run a 60-minute mock covering query work, a case and a behavioural question in a single sitting with no breaks, because sustained attention is the thing evenings have not trained.
Immediately afterwards, and before hearing any feedback, write the three moments you lost the thread.
Spend the rest of the block only on those three moments, and on nothing you merely feel shaky about.

Deliverable: Mock notes naming three failure moments with a specific fix written under each.

Day 7 — Taper

Write the 20-minute warm-up you will actually do on the morning of the interview: one query you can already write from a blank file, one metric you can define out loud, and nothing you have never seen before.
Re-read only your own notes from this week, and open no new material.
Write down the logistics: the tool you will be asked to work in, whether lookups are allowed, and the sentence you will use when you do not know something.

Deliverable: A one-page card holding the case structure, the project numbers, and the logistics.

Explaining a method to someone who will not follow the maths

Half of this section is about translation. Be ready to describe how you explained a result to someone who did not want the method, only the implication, and what you did when the simplified version started being repeated in a way that overstated it. Correcting your own simplification is a strong beat.

Allocate one analyst-week across three competing risk requests

Medium · prioritisation · decision deadlines · stakeholder negotiation

Three requests land in the same week and you have one analyst-week. Payments wants a merchant-level decline teardown before a contract renewal in nine days. Credit wants a swap-set analysis on a cutoff change scheduled to ship in six weeks. Insurance wants accident-quarter loss ratios at 12 months development for a reserving review with no fixed date. Each sponsor believes theirs is first, and each has escalated before. Produce the allocation, the reasoning you would say out loud to all three at once, and what you explicitly drop.

Approach

Score each request on the decision it unblocks rather than on effort or on how loudly it arrived: what changes if it is late, and is that change reversible.
Separate deadline from value. The nine-day renewal is a hard, irreversible date with a bounded prize; the six-week cutoff has slack but a much larger downside if it ships unmeasured; the reserving number has no date but feeds external reporting, which is its own kind of hard.
Hunt for the cheap partial in each: a decline teardown restricted to the top merchants by declined value usually answers the contract question at a fraction of the full cut.
Sequence by hard date first, then by largest irreversible downside, and deliver the trade-off to all three sponsors in one message rather than three, so nobody negotiates privately against a version you told someone else.
Name what is dropped and who now owns that consequence, in writing, so the trade-off is visible rather than silently absorbed by you.

Follow-up

The credit sponsor escalates to your manager. What do you change, and what do you refuse to change?
How would you make this allocation reproducible so the next contested week is a rule application rather than a negotiation?

Disagree with a product manager over an approval-rate target

Medium · metric design · denominators · influence without authority

A product manager proposes a quarterly goal of raising card authorization approval rate by 150 basis points, measured as approved authorizations divided by all authorizations in fct_payment_authorization. You believe that metric can be hit with no customer benefit, because merchant retry chains, zero-amount verification authorizations, incremental authorizations and reversals all sit in the denominator, and declines skew toward high-value cross-border ecommerce. You support the underlying goal. In one working session, change the metric without killing the initiative, and name the guardrail you would accept.

Approach

Separate the goal from the metric out loud and agree with the goal first, so the disagreement stays narrow and technical rather than becoming positional.
Demonstrate the failure rather than asserting it: compute the proposed metric and the dollar-weighted collapsed version over the same recent window, and find a period where they moved in opposite directions.
Propose the replacement precisely: sum of approved amount_minor over sum of attempted amount_minor, after collapsing retries to one attempt per card_token_id, merchant_id and amount_minor within a 15-minute window, excluding is_reversal rows and zero-amount verifications, with everything converted to one reporting currency before summing.
Attach the guardrail that makes the target honest: matured first-chargeback rate and net fraud loss in basis points of settled volume, read only on transaction months carrying at least 120 days of maturity.
Give the product manager something back: the replacement metric cuts cleanly by channel and issuer_country, which makes a roadmap of merchant-specific and authentication fixes legible in a way the blended rate never was.

Follow-up

How do you identify a retry chain when the merchant varies the amount slightly between attempts?
The product manager wants a weekly read on the guardrail. What is the earliest defensible signal, and how do you label it?

Explain an incomplete dispute chart to a non-technical executive

Easy · dispute maturity · stakeholder communication · right-censoring

A finance lead is looking at first-chargeback rate by transaction month, built from fct_card_dispute joined to fct_payment_authorization on auth_id and attributed to requested_at. The last three months slope sharply down and the lead wants to announce a fraud improvement at tomorrow's review. Consumer dispute rights commonly run around 120 days from the transaction or expected delivery date, so those months are not complete. In five minutes, with no statistics vocabulary, explain why the decline is not yet evidence and say exactly what you would put on the slide instead.

Approach

Lead with the mechanism in the listener's own terms, not with the statistical name for it: a dispute is attributed to the month the transaction happened, but it can be filed up to roughly 120 days later, so recent months contain only the disputes filed so far.
Show completeness rather than arguing about the rate: for each transaction month, plot the share of its eventual disputes already filed, estimated from months that are fully matured. The last three months will sit visibly below 100 percent.
Replace the chart with two artefacts: a matured series that stops 120 days back and is labelled final, and a development-factor estimate for the immature months drawn as a dashed range and labelled an estimate.
Hand over one sentence the executive can repeat without you in the room: the recent months look better because the disputes have not arrived yet, not because fewer will arrive.
Offer a weekly signal they can watch instead, such as the risk-score mix of approved volume or the decline-rule hit rate, and state up front what it does and does not predict.

Follow-up

The deck ships tomorrow regardless. What exactly goes on the slide, and what wording do you insist on?
How would you estimate the development factors, and how would you notice if they had shifted?